Asia Economics Update What do US tariffs mean for Asia? US tariffs on imports of solar cells and washing machines are likely to cause some short-term disruption in parts of the region, most notably Malaysia, Korea and Vietnam. However, the overall impact... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Is the Philippines overheating? Rapid economic growth, surging imports and strong credit growth have fuelled fears that the Philippines is overheating and that the central bank will soon be forced to hike interest rates to bring the... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico: navigating choppy waters… July’s elections and Nafta renegotiations make the uncertainties around the outlook for interest rates in Mexico unusually high. An election upset or the collapse of Nafta could result in interest... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the strong pound snuff out the net trade boost? The recent rise in the pound against the dollar to almost $1.40, its highest level since the eve of the EU referendum, raises some concerns that a valuable source of support to economic growth –... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Rebound in inflation could be the big story in 2018 The stronger 0.3% m/m gain in core consumer prices in December provided clearer evidence that the forces weighing on core inflation last year are now firmly in reverse. Admittedly, core CPI inflation... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Sustained upturn need not prompt ECB rate hikes The euro-zone’s impressive upturn looks set to continue apace as reduced political uncertainty, high levels of business confidence, and continued strong policy support allow investment to take off... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Signs of EM trade softening heading into 2018 Early data for December suggest that EM export growth finished 2017 on a slightly softer footing and support our view that trade growth will slow this year. 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Time to worry about the trade deficit? India’s trade deficit widened to a three-year high in December, but we don’t think this is cause for major concern just yet. Exports should rebound following disruptions related to the GST, while... 16th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Nov.) The widening of the euro-zone’s goods trade surplus in November suggests that the euro’s strength is doing little to hurt the region’s exports. With the global economy in good health and world trade... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Majority don’t support a second referendum The possibility of a second referendum was again raised this week, but the chances of another vote happening appear slim. Meanwhile, we still expect a transitional deal to be agreed by March. But the... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What would happen if the US withdrew from NAFTA? The rise in trade tensions ahead of the sixth round of NAFTA trade talks scheduled to start later this month suggest that those talks could already be doomed. But we still think that there’s a good... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec.) Our tracker suggests that EM capital outflows picked up a bit in December, but remained slow over the year as a whole. Portfolio flows into EMs hit a record high last year, and look strong going into... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Dec.) Export growth declined slightly last month but remained healthy. In contrast, import growth slowed sharply, raising questions over the state of domestic demand. Divergent prospects for growth in China... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly The export rebound is unsustainable Despite the decent outlook for global growth over the next year, we doubt the recent rebound in Asian export volumes will be sustained. If we are right, then regional growth is likely to slow, with... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Revisiting Nafta (again) Concerns over the fate of Nafta have caused more wobbles in Mexican markets over the past day, but the economic implications are less straightforward than much of the commentary suggests. While any... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Nov.) The latest hard data for Q4 supports the view that the UK economy maintained a reasonable amount of momentum, and offers some tentative signs that net trade may have provided a bigger boost to growth. 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
