Commodities Weekly Trump’s tariffs become reality The big news this week was confirmation of President Trump’s tariffs on US steel and aluminium imports on national security grounds. This sent US steel prices even higher, but weighed on prices in... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update North Korea, Trump and South Korea’s economy Donald Trump’s decision to accept an invitation to visit North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, represents an extraordinary turn of events, and comes just a few months after the US president was calling... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What would a trade war mean for Asia? Developments in the past couple of weeks point to the risk of trade policy in the US becoming much more protectionist. Given its huge bilateral trade surplus with the US, China is likely to be the... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Trump, trade and the protectionist threat: a primer Fears are growing that recent developments in the US, including the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminium as well as the apparent ascendancy of economic nationalists within the White House, may... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update No need for concern over China’s February imports China’s commodity import volumes fell back sharply in February, but this can probably be explained by the week-long New Year holiday which fell in the middle of the month. The bigger picture is that... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: early signs that strong demand is leaking into imports Q4 GDP breakdowns for the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) confirmed that last year’s pick-up in regional growth was driven by an improvement in consumer spending and investment. However... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Feb.) The surge in export growth last month largely reflects the shifting timing of Chinese New Year. Of greater significance given the current climate of concern over US protectionism, China’s surplus with... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The rebound in the trade balance from a deficit of $1.14bn in December to a surplus of $1.06bn in January is welcome news, though it may be too early to conclude that net exports will substantially... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump, tariffs and protectionism Developments over the past couple of weeks suggest that President Donald Trump might finally be following through on the protectionist threats he made during the election campaign. The measures... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A trade war against China would not be “easy to win” The resignation of Gary Cohn, reportedly one of the strongest proponents of free-trade policies within the Trump administration, has raised fears that US trade policy may now turn sharply towards... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Do the NAFTA talks have implications for commodities? If the US were to withdraw from NAFTA, it could lead to downward pressure on US agricultural prices. But the impact on the more industrial commodities, including energy, is likely to be limited. 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How big a threat are Trump’s tariff proposals? It looks increasingly likely that President Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium on grounds of national security will be implemented in some form. If so, other governments... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jan.) The narrowing of the merchandise trade deficit in January is actually a concern because it was driven by a large decline in imports, which points to weakening domestic demand. In addition, the further... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The increase in the trade deficit to a nine-year high of $56.6bn in January, from $53.9bn, suggests that net trade will once again be a drag on economic growth in the first quarter, and will only add... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How will Japan react to the Trump tariffs? Japanese officials have good reasons to take the imposition of US tariffs on steel and aluminium in their stride. The US would have to target a more important industry to provoke Japan to retaliate... 7th March 2018 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update How would more protectionism affect the dollar? The reaction in currency markets to President Trump’s proposed tariffs on steel and aluminium suggests that investors are far more concerned that the duties represent the opening salvo of a trade war... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
