Emerging Markets Trade Monitor US-China trade tensions: the supply chain impact on EMs The US tariffs on China announced last week will, if implemented, have knock on effects on other EMs though supply chains, particularly in parts of East Asia and in Chile. The impact of the measures... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Putting China’s surplus into perspective China’s bilateral trade surplus with the US and concerns about unfair trade practices are likely to keep US-China trade tensions boiling for a long time. But China’s overall current account surplus is... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update China Treasury holdings offer little leverage in trade spat China’s holdings of Treasury securities, which currently stand at almost $1.2trn equivalent to 8.2% of the total outstanding, offer it little leverage in the current trade spat with the US. Dumping... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Feb.) February’s activity data added to the evidence that the economy lost a little pace in Q1. But we don’t think that this will prevent the Monetary Policy Committee from raising interest rates again in... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update India unlikely to be labelled “currency manipulator” India has not been spared the recent ramping up of trade-related attacks by the US, with the most notable action so far being the challenge to India’s use of export subsidies at the WTO. However... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Tight labour market finally boosting pay Revised data show that regular earnings expanded at the fastest pace in two decades at the start of this year, underlining that the tight labour market is finally generating stronger cost pressures... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Has Xi done enough to placate Trump? In an attempt to de-escalate trade tensions, Xi has pledged to speed up efforts to reduce trade and investment barriers, boost competition and bolster intellectual property protections. This could... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Has Xi done enough to placate Trump? In an attempt to de-escalate trade tensions, Xi has pledged to speed up efforts to reduce trade and investment barriers, boost competition and bolster intellectual property protections. This could... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What would a US-China trade war mean for Japan? The proposed tariffs on bilateral imports between the US and China would only have a small direct impact on Japan. Nor would Japan benefit much if buyers looked for cheaper alternatives. A further... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s sanction sell-off and the economic impact The US sanctions imposed on Russia last Friday have caused turmoil in Russia’s markets today and financial conditions have tightened as a result. But at this stage it doesn’t look like there will be a... 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is it time to worry about a trade war? While we still think that negotiations will win out over all-out trade war, the risks of a damaging trade conflict breaking out between the US and China have risen. If the latest US-proposed tariffs... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trade tensions to remain at the top of the agenda The escalating threats over tariffs between the US and China have dominated the headlines this week. But next week could bring the more positive news of a ‘preliminary’ deal on NAFTA. Reports suggest... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is it time to worry about a trade war? While we still think that negotiations will win out over all-out trade war, the risks of a damaging trade conflict breaking out between the US and China have risen. If the latest US-proposed tariffs... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Protectionist rhetoric weighs on prices Trade tensions escalated this week, as the US and China engaged in tit-for-tat announcements on proposed tariffs. The prices of commodities which would be affected by the tariffs generally fell... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly NAFTA deal wouldn't lead to higher interest rates The US administration appears to be pushing hard to get a deal done on NAFTA, reigniting speculation of further interest rate increases from the Bank of Canada. Even if a trade deal is done, however... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth may have peaked in Q1 The weakness of some recent economic data and business surveys has raised concerns that the global expansion is running out of steam. But we estimate that world GDP growth picked up a bit in the first... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
