Africa Chart Pack Winds of change reach Ethiopia Ethiopia’s ruling party appointed a new prime minister on 2nd April, stabilising a situation that had been in flux since the previous incumbent’s resignation in February. Abiy Ahmed inherits a divided... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Trade war fears overblown, for now President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports from China have raised concerns of a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Many fear that this could have knock-on effects on EMs... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) A rise in US-China trade tensions has dominated headlines in recent weeks. But recent developments are not having any impact on cross-border capital flows. Our estimates suggest that flows in and out... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Export soft spot adds to evidence EM growth has peaked The export components of the EM business surveys have not deteriorated to the same extent as those in developed markets over the past couple of months, but they nonetheless add to the evidence that... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s current account deficit to narrow further The narrowing in Egypt’s current account deficit has further to run, supported by a recovery in the tourism sector and strong export growth. This will help to limit downward pressure on the pound and... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we worry about the rise in EM public debt? The IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor has put the rise in EM public debt over the past decade back under the spotlight. While debt ratios have increased across most of the emerging world, major... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Short-term risks of protectionism are overstated Even if the US and China were to follow through on their recent protectionist threats, the impact on global growth in the next year or two would be small. Moreover, a bigger and more damaging... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Mar.) Distortions related to the Lunar New Year unwound in March, but we estimate that net trade still turned into a drag on GDP growth last quarter. 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Markets recover as fears of imminent trade war recede Equity markets across Emerging Asia have bounced back a little since early April as fears of an imminent trade war between the US and China have receded. The decision by the US Treasury not to label... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External deficit in check amid rising trade tensions India’s trade deficit widened in March, but we think it will still remain comfortable over the coming months despite the recent ramping up of trade-related attacks by the US. 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) Our Tracker shows that aggregate capital flows to EMs have been resilient over the past few months in the face of fears of a protectionist shift in the US and sell-offs in equity markets. Concerns... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Economic recovery will peak this year We expect that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to accelerate in 2018. This recovery will be driven largely by South Africa and Nigeria, where growth is set to pick up by more than... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Trade fears weigh on Swiss franc and Swedish krona Both the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona have depreciated by almost 1.5% against the euro over the past month. This has left the franc trading at its weakest level since the Swiss National Bank... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Feb.) After widening in February, the euro-zone’s nominal goods trade surplus is on track to be little changed in Q1. Looking ahead, the surveys suggest that the contribution from net trade to economic... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will the US bully Japan into a free trade agreement? US President Trump has once again sown confusion by indicating that the US may still join the Trans Pacific Partnership. However, he indicated that this would require a renegotiation of the agreement... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Mar.) Lunar New Year effects continued to distort China’s headline trade figures last month. But looking through this seasonal volatility, shipments look to have remained healthy, serving as a reminder that... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
