International Merchandise Trade (May) Canadian exporters are doing well given the evidence of a marked deterioration in the global backdrop but, with the domestic and global manufacturing surveys deteriorating further in June, it is hard... 3rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (May) The sharp widening in the trade deficit to $55.5bn in May, from $51.2bn, suggests that net trade was a slightly bigger drag on second-quarter GDP growth than we had previously anticipated, with the... 3rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (May) The record trade surplus in May was supported by the recent surge in iron ore prices so will not completely flow through to stronger net exports in Q2. Even so, we expect net trade to continue to make... 3rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Hurdles ahead for the Mercosur-EU trade deal The preliminary trade deal between Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay) and the EU, if implemented in full, would boost potential growth in the bloc, perhaps by as much as 0.75-1.0%-pt... 1st July 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Dovish central banks set to cut rates further he subdued global outlook and weakness in domestic economic activity has caused us to revise down our forecasts for interest rates in Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, annual GDP growth slowed... 1st July 2019 · 9 mins read
India Economics Update External position looks secure India’s current account deficit narrowed in Q1 and, while significant policy loosening could cause imports to pick up over the coming quarters, we think that oil prices will remain low. This should... 1st July 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade, Manufacturing PMIs (June) Very weak trade data for Korea and the fall in the manufacturing PMIs in June suggest that economic conditions deteriorated at the end of last quarter. After a weak Q1, GDP growth looks unlikely to... 1st July 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly G20 truce, armyworm epidemic Trump and Xi will meet tomorrow and may agree to hold off imposing new tariffs for the time being. While this would be a positive outcome for China’s economy and markets in the short-run, any gains... 28th June 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA thinks about China slowdown & QE The RBA seems to be getting more concerned about a slowdown in China’s GDP growth and the recent slowdown in visitor arrivals from China will only exacerbate those worries. Meanwhile, Governor Lowe... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Further policy loosening on the cards Amid signs of a recent slowdown in economic growth, the Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates at a third consecutive meeting in early June, taking the repo rate to its lowest since 2010. What’s... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export weakness to persist, trade deal or not The upcoming meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 summit has raised hopes of a US-China trade deal but, as things stand, we think it is more likely that the trade war will ultimately... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (May) The wider trade deficit in May was a result of a sharp fall in exports and a slight fall in imports. Although export volumes are unlikely to be as weak as they were in the last quarter, a likely... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Apr.) Following March’s sharp fall, the euro-zone’s nominal goods trade surplus narrowed further in April. Given the softening of the export orders indices since the start of the year, we think that net... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch What our new view on trade means for commodities We no longer expect the US and China to strike a deal on trade, and now forecast that the two countries’ dispute will escalate further. In this Commodities Watch, we lay out what our new view on trade... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines Current Account (Q1), Remittances (Apr.) The current account deficit of the Philippines widened again last quarter and is likely to remain a key source of vulnerability over the coming year. 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit will narrow again soon India’s monthly goods trade deficit widened a touch in May but given its very low exposure to an escalation in trade tensions between the US and China and the fact that oil prices are likely to stay... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
