Africa Economics Update Zambia: A closer look at public debt worries We’ve long argued that Zambia’s debt position is very fragile. Adverse commodity price moves, for instance, could quickly push it into debt distress. If recent allegations that officials have... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) The widening in the trade deficit to a record high of $4.1bn in March, from $2.9bn, was not as bad as it seems since exports increased by 3.7% m/m and, although imports increased by a very strong 6.0%... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Trade (Mar.), ISM Non-Mfg. (Apr.) & Productivity (Q1) The sharp decline in the nominal trade deficit to a six-month low of $49.0bn in March, from $57.7bn in February, was driven by an encouraging rise in exports. The data imply that net trade was broadly... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Nafta 2.0: what’s on the table? Following intensive talks last month, a preliminary new Nafta deal appears to be within reach. While it could still struggle to pass through legislatures in each country, the deal that looks to be on... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus China & Africa: Setting the record straight Perceptions of the economic ties between China and Africa are often based on inaccurate assumptions. In this Focus we debunk three key myths. The China-Africa relationship is not as state-driven, as... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade & Building Approvals (Mar.) While most of the other major economies have slowed in the first quarter, March’s international trade and building approvals figures suggest that the Australian economy strengthened markedly. 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How vulnerable is Germany to US tariffs? Germany faces little threat from the US aluminium and steel tariffs that might come into force this week, but would be hit harder than most other European economies if the US imposed broader tariffs... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is Germany to US tariffs? Germany faces little threat from the US aluminium and steel tariffs that might come into force this week, but would be hit harder than most other European economies if the US imposed broader tariffs... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Public debt fears concentrated in smaller frontiers Public debt positions across the emerging world have come under scrutiny recently and the risks appear to be concentrated in frontier markets. In aggregate, the debt-to-GDP ratio of frontier... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Struggling to reach potential A weakening housing market and the high level of household debt will probably prevent GDP growth in Australia from accelerating above 2.5% in the coming years, while the end of the migration boom may... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly NAFTA deal would boost foreign investment This week brought a furious last-minute push from all sides to reach a provisional deal on updating NAFTA, ahead of July’s Mexican presidential election. The US congressional mid-term elections won’t... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Remittance inflows to remain strong Remittance inflows are an important source of external funding for India, and were equivalent to 3% of GDP in 2017 – larger than FDI and portfolio inflows combined. Though there are some risks... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade growth holding up well (for now) Data published earlier today show that global trade was expanding rapidly in the three months ending in February. More timely business surveys suggest that it may have slowed since then, but they have... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe shrugs off softness in euro-zone The latest data suggest that, while GDP growth in Central Europe has now peaked, it remained strong at 4.5-5.0% y/y in Q1. That came in spite of a raft of softer activity and survey figures from key... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Economy gathering momentum Indian GDP growth hit a five-quarter high in Q4 2017, and various indicators suggest that the economy strengthened further in the first quarter of 2018. Industrial production growth last quarter may... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The manufacturing PMI suggests that activity in the sector remains healthy but firms are getting increasingly concerned about the outlook for external demand. 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
