Asia Data Response Korea Trade, Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) Downbeat trade data for Korea and weak regional manufacturing PMIs suggest that GDP data for last quarter are likely to be subdued again in most places, but there were some signs of improvement at the... 1st October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities remain low India’s current account deficit narrowed a touch in the four quarters to Q2 and looks unlikely to balloon any time soon as imports of key commodities remain in check. Meanwhile, FDI inflows edged up... 1st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Not living up to their potential Economic growth has continued to ease in both countries in the first half of 2019. In Australia, GDP growth eased to 1.4% y/y in Q2. And while the government’s tax cuts may mean that consumption... 30th September 2019 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: protectionism key risk to growth outlook Data released over the weekend suggest that Vietnam grew strongly in the third quarter of the year, and we think it will remain one of the fastest growing economies in the region. The possibility that... 30th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade still unlikely to grow at all this year While world trade volumes rebounded in July, they only recovered ground lost the previous month. The big picture is that world trade is set to remain weak in the coming months as the global industrial... 27th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Kuroda targets short end, “phenomenal” trade deal The shift in the Bank of Japan’s bond purchases from long towards short maturities has helped to lift very long-term yields from their recent lows. And if US Treasury yields rise further next year... 27th September 2019 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update Services exports are collateral damage in trade war With attention focused on the impact of tariffs on goods trade, the recent decline in services exports has gone largely unnoticed. But that has already knocked a few tenths off GDP growth and, with... 23rd September 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Weak export growth to persist New tax breaks announced by the government and the recent weakness of the rupee will do little to support India’s exporters, who will find it hard to capitalise given subdued global demand and... 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update The US to become a net oil exporter in 2021 US production of light crude oil will continue to grow in the coming years, and we expect that this will lead to the US becoming a net exporter of crude oil by 2021. 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Reigniting reforms The latest activity data for India have been disappointing but, despite the economy’s recent soft patch, developments over the past month should boost optimism over long-run prospects. In late August... 19th September 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports stabilise, but outlook poor EM exports stabilised in July and August but, with the latest round of US-China tariffs yet to feed through and global growth subdued, we expect EM export growth to remain weak in the coming quarters. 18th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Aug.) The fall in exports in August still leaves open the possibility of a rebound across the third quarter which means that the previous drag that net trade had on growth may have eased. The big picture... 18th September 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Goods trade deficit set to remain contained The goods trade deficit was virtually unchanged in August and, even if export growth stays weak, we think that the shortfall will remain small over the coming quarters. 16th September 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update US-China trade war has only minor implications for the UK The impact of the trade war between the US and China on the UK economy has been small, even allowing for the indirect effects on investment and the financial markets. Admittedly, trade tensions will... 11th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Trade war still not a major threat to Australia The trade war has probably lowered Chinese demand for Australian exports by curbing investment in factories and warehouses. But the trade tensions have contributed to the weakening of the Australian... 11th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Strength in China’s commodity imports won’t last long China’s commodity imports ticked up in August, in part due to strong infrastructure spending. But we expect them to weaken in the months ahead as temporary factors fade and construction activity tails... 9th September 2019 · 2 mins read
