China Economics Weekly “Proportional” deal, renminbi, bank mergers A “Phase One” US-China trade deal that partially rolls back tariffs now appears within reach and, as a result, we no longer expect further renminbi weakness in the remaining weeks of this year. But... 8th November 2019 · 7 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Oct.) The contraction in both exports and imports eased more than expected last month. But even if the “Phase One” US-China trade deal crosses the finish line, it is unlikely to alleviate the main headwinds... 8th November 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Turning away from freer trade India’s decision this week to opt-out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is not entirely unreasonable given the limited scope of the deal. But by excluding itself from the RCEP... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Labour market begins to loosen The jump in the unemployment rate in September is evidence that the labour market has entered a loosening phase. The Bank of Japan reiterated that the output gap was its key gauge of price pressures... 7th November 2019 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Sep.) Net trade probably didn’t bolster GDP growth in the third quarter which adds to the evidence that GDP growth slowed in Q3. And weaker capital goods imports suggest that the slump in business... 7th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep.) The narrowing in the trade deficit to $52.5bn in September, from $55.0bn, confirms that net trade was broadly neutral for third-quarter GDP growth, although we expect it to become a renewed drag in... 5th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly New currency forecasts, Taiwan’s tourism woes Having previously expected equity and currency markets to fall sharply across Emerging Asia before the end of the year, we have revised our forecasts and now expect financial markets to remain broadly... 1st November 2019 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Plenum readout, stagflation fears, RCEP Summit The conclusion of the Communist Party Plenum offered few clues on the direction of economic policy. Meanwhile, rising inflation is leading to suggestions that the PBOC won’t be able to loosen as much... 1st November 2019 · 6 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade, CPI (Oct.) Korean exports fell sharply again in y/y terms last month, but the sector is in better health than the headline data suggest. Meanwhile, Korea exited deflation in October and inflation should continue... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update How big would the benefits be from RCEP? Further progress towards the establishment of what would be the world’s biggest trade deal, the Regional Economic Comprehensive Partnership (RCEP), is expected over the weekend. Given the... 31st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack IMF too optimistic on Australia and New Zealand In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF predicted Australia’s economy to expand by 1.7% in 2019 and by 2.3% in 2020. While the 2019 forecast is consistent with our own expectations, their... 31st October 2019 · 10 mins read
China Chart Pack Corporate earnings falling short of expectations The corporate earnings season currently underway in China has been disappointing. Admittedly, the Q3 results published so far point to a slight improvement in year-on-year growth in earnings per share... 30th October 2019 · 11 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Recent resilience unlikely to be sustained After a jump in July, world trade volumes rose again in August. But this is unlikely to be the start of a material recovery – indeed, most indicators point to subdued trade growth in the closing... 28th October 2019 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack Government bond yields likely to rise Local bond yields have dropped over the past few months as the Reserve Bank has continued easing monetary policy, but we think they will start rising again before long. Fiscal policy has been loosened... 23rd October 2019 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update Can the strong dollar explain the global slowdown? Given the widespread use of the US dollar in international trade and finance, policymakers outside the US have suggested that the dollar’s appreciation is partly to blame for the slowdown in the world... 21st October 2019 · 9 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Sep.) Export volumes probably rebounded in the third quarter which should provide some relief for the Bank of Japan. But as external demand is set to weaken further, we think export volumes will fall at a... 21st October 2019 · 2 mins read
