Global Economics Focus The damage from a global trade war Assessing the damage from a global trade war is tricky because there are few historical precedents and the costs would depend on the nature of the conflict. But our best guess is that, if all... 9th July 2018 · 25 mins read
China Economics Weekly Letting go of equities, holding the renminbi Chinese policymakers are intervening to stem market declines, but unevenly: they appear much more concerned about the currency than about equities. Meanwhile, worries about the domestic outlook... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Booming activity and tariffs adding to price pressures Activity is booming, with employment up by more than 200,000 again in June and second-quarter GDP growth apparently close to 4% annualised. But, alongside the recently imposed tariffs, strong activity... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Q2 rebound, edging closer to a rate hike, a soft Brexit? An encouraging set of Markit/CIPS surveys provided further evidence that the economy has rebounded in Q2. Meanwhile, in a speech this week, Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, appeared to reinforce... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Malaysia: China investment freeze to weigh on growth The Malaysian government’s decision earlier this week to suspend work on the US$20bn East Coast Railway Link points to a bleak future for Chinese investment in the country. Halting work on these... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How big of a deal would auto tariffs be? Applying tariffs on auto imports would represent the biggest escalation of protectionism so far. Even though the direct impact would be small, boosting the price level by 1% point or so and triggering... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth rebounds despite “trade war” fears With the US and China poised to impose tariffs on each other in the coming days trade tensions look set to ratchet up further. But the world economy is still doing well. We estimate that global... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Strong growth likely in run-up to election Economic growth has surged in recent quarters and we expect it to remain strong over the next year or so, supported by buoyant private and government consumption ahead of the general election that is... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Q2 growth set to be healthy, but slower than last year Hard data relating to euro-zone activity in Q2 have been a little disappointing so far, denting hopes that GDP growth would rebound strongly after Q1’s 0.4% quarterly expansion. Industrial production... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Signs of a rebound in Q2 The improvement in all three Markit/CIPS PMI surveys in June provided further signs that the economy has rebounded after the weak start to the year. Indeed, the all-sector PMI rose from 54.3 in May to... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (May) It looks as though a rebound in consumption growth will broadly offset a weakening in the external sector in the second quarter to keep the Australian economy cruising along nicely in the second... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US-China tariffs may shift import demand to other EMs The tariffs imposed by China and the US on $34bn of each other’s imports – that will come into force on Friday – are likely to have a small, negative impact on most of the emerging world. But some EMs... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Protectionism not the only headwind for EM currencies Emerging market (EM) currencies have mostly recovered a little ground against the dollar today. But the bigger picture is that they have generally been weakening for some time now, and in our view... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US-China tariffs may shift import demand to other EMs The tariffs imposed by China and the US on $34bn of each other’s imports – that will come into force on Friday – are likely to have a small, negative impact on most of the emerging world. But some EMs... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) The June PMIs for Emerging Asia indicate that the region’s manufacturing sectors remained in decent health. Meanwhile, Korean export data suggest export growth in the rest of the region likely ended... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Jun.) The latest PMI readings suggest that the economy lost some momentum last month. With credit growth still cooling and US tariffs imminent, we expect further weakness ahead. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
