Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Feb.) Korean trade data for the first 20 days of February add to the evidence that factory closures in China are disrupting local industry. 21st February 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Dec.) & External Trade (Jan.) Exports fell by less than expected last month but net trade is set to be a major drag on GDP growth this quarter. Coronavirus-related disruption should contribute to net trade knocking around 0.6%pts... 19th February 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Government continues to tread tariff tightrope When faced with the choice of deciding whether to impose higher import tariffs on goods (exposing consumers to higher inflation) or lower ones (exposing firms to greater competition), the government’s... 18th February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Wider trade deficit no major concern India’s merchandise trade deficit widened to a seven-month high in January, but we think that a low level of commodity imports will help to prevent the external shortfall from ballooning to... 17th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Extended travel ban threatens education exports Australia has extended its ban on travellers from mainland China until 22 nd February. Given that many universities begin teaching again on 24 th February, there is a growing risk that the travel ban... 14th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Debt sustainability, early evidence of coronavirus drag The ratio of Japan’s public debt to GDP will probably keep rising over the coming decades. But with the Bank of Japan set to keep a lid on borrowing costs, it’s hard to make the case that public debt... 14th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th Feb.) Korean trade data serve as a good bellwether for the rest of the region and figures for the first 10 days of February suggest that factory closures in China are disrupting regional industry. 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Sales (Dec.) The pick-up in real retail sales provides some hope that consumption growth may have turned a corner. Even so, we still think GDP growth remained subdued at the end of 2019. 6th February 2020 · 2 mins read
International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) The jump in exports should drive a larger monthly rise in GDP in December. That will provide a strong hand-over to the first quarter and supports our forecast for growth to rebound to near 2%... 5th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs and Korea Trade (Jan.) PMIs for Emerging Asia (ex. China) and Korean trade data were mostly unchanged in January, but neither give a good indication of how the coronavirus has hit the regional economy most recently. With... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly FDI inflows likely to rise further The rise in FDI inflows to India in 2019 reported by UNCTAD this week is a welcome development and we expect inflows to increase further over the coming years. A key risk is the Modi government’s... 24th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Dec.) We estimate that net trade boosted GDP growth by around 0.4 percentage points in Q4. However, much of that reflects soft domestic demand following October’s sales tax hike. We expect the external... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Economic growth to accelerate in 2020 The Fed’s interest rate cuts, a truce in the trade war, and a more positive global backdrop have all set the stage for an acceleration in economic growth this year. We calculate that GDP growth was a... 21st January 2020 · 9 mins read
India Chart Pack Tentative signs of recovery 2019 was truly an annus horribilis for India’s economy but there are green shoots of a recovery in the data from the very end of the year. Industrial production growth jumped in November. Meanwhile... 20th January 2020 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trade deal adds to hopes of a more upbeat 2020 The main economic impact of the signing of the Phase One trade deal this week was to further reduce the downside risks to the outlook. But the details of the deal also suggest some upside risk to... 17th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Outlook for euro-zone exports still subdued The Phase One trade deal between the US and China is not a game changer for Europe. We still expect euro-zone export growth to remain fairly slow this year as the global economy expands less quickly... 17th January 2020 · 6 mins read
