US Economics Update Trade war cancelled…maybe The unexpectedly successful trade meeting between President Donald Trump and EU President Jean-Claude Juncker yesterday has raised hopes that a much bigger trade war can be averted. Admittedly, the... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Markets weather US-Iran tensions, Egypt seeks oil hedge Financial markets across the MENA region have shrugged off the latest escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, although we doubt that this resilience will last. Meanwhile, news that Egypt will... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Will Cambodia’s investment-led growth last? Hun Sen is likely to record his fifth election victory on Sunday against the backdrop of an economy riding high on the back of a Chinese investment boom. Chinese money should help to support strong... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Next round of trade war likely to hit US assets harder Despite the resilience of the S&P 500 recently, US assets have not been altogether immune to trade tensions. And we think that they will come under a lot more pressure if, as seems increasingly likely... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade losing momentum, but not collapsing World trade volumes rose in May but their underlying rate of growth dropped again. We continue to think that the evidence does not yet point to anything worse than a modest slowdown. 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Weak balance sheets come into focus Market concerns over fragile balance sheets have forced policymakers in a number of frontier economies to take action over the past month. Strains in the balance of payments prompted the authorities... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland will soon enter era of weaker growth Poland’s economy is set to expand at a robust pace over the remainder of 2018, but rising inflation and tighter monetary policy will cause the economy to slow by more than is widely anticipated in... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s external position on the mend The improvement in Egypt’s balance of payments position over the past eighteen months should be sustained, providing some support to the pound. Accordingly, inflation should resume its downward trend... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Cyclical recovery set to resume The recovery in Latin America stalled in Q2, but we expect regional growth to accelerate over the coming quarters and our GDP forecasts for 2018-19 are generally above consensus. The main exception is... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP defeats no-confidence vote Prime Minister Modi’s BJP comfortably defeated the vote of no-confidence initiated by opposition parties on Friday. The result isn’t a major surprise given that the BJP holds a majority in the Lok... 23rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Trade tensions likely to continue to weigh on prices There were further falls in most commodity prices this week as concerns about the negative impact on demand of heightened protectionism dampened investor sentiment. With Donald Trump threatening that... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Positive monthly data, Japan deal not a game-changer Recent euro-zone data releases have generally been encouraging, supporting our view that GDP growth picked up from 0.4% in Q1 to 0.5% in Q2. Meanwhile, the EU-Japan trade deal, signed this week, is... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC FX policy becoming more hands-on again The People’s Bank appears to be leaning against downward market pressure on the renminbi. But the depreciation it has allowed so far will already provide a cushion for China’s exporters as they face... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Trade war not the only headwind for risky assets Worries about a global trade war have already weighed on the prices of many risky assets, particularly those in Asia. And there is a growing risk that the US implements even more protectionist... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Putting the EU’s surplus in a global context The EU’s and, particularly, Germany’s trade practices have been criticised heavily by President Trump, prompting him in early July to label the trade bloc “as bad as China”. However, from a global... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Trade war & peace The trade war between China and the US will cause some collateral damage but the biggest potential threat to Japan’s economy is a US tariff on Japanese cars. For now though, our base case is that the... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
