Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Phase One deal: the good and bad for EMs The latest data suggest that y/y EM export growth turned positive in December, having contracted for much of 2019. We think this will mark the start of a run of better EM export figures. Meanwhile... 17th January 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Phase One, Wall Street and the renminbi The Phase One trade deal signed this week includes commitments by China to refrain from competitive devaluations and widen market access for US non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). We doubt the... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly US-China trade deal headwind to export growth The trade deal between the US and China may improve confidence in Australia helping end the drag from private investment. But prospects of a deal probably also contributed to the appreciation in the... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update US-China trade deal, and its impact on the rest of Asia The signing of the Phase One trade deal is unlikely to spell the end of the trade war, and the disruption it has caused to Asian supply chains looks set to continue. 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA’s work not done yet Australia’s house prices may rise by 8% this year but consumers are still reeling under high debt loads. With growth set to fall short of potential, we still expect unemployment to rise further which... 16th January 2020 · 22 mins read
India Economics Update Risks from wider trade deficit are limited The narrowing in India’s goods trade deficit in December is likely to reverse over the coming months. But we think that a low level of commodity imports will help to prevent the external shortfall... 16th January 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus The Phase One deal and its impact on China The trade deal between the US and China marks an end to the first phase of the trade war. China’s pledges on imports from the US are unlikely to be met but that may not matter to the deal’s long-term... 15th January 2020 · 11 mins read
US Economics Update Phase One deal reduces downside risks The Phase One trade agreement signed today removes the downside risk of a never-ending escalation of tariffs imposed by the US and China on each other’s imports, but the modest scale of the roll-back... 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Dec.) Headline trade growth surged in December. But this is more a reflection of base and price effects than of current strength. And while the outlook for exports is improving, domestic demand will remain... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Nov.) The sharp decline in GDP in December is partly due to some activity being brought forward before the 31st October Brexit deadline. Nonetheless it leaves the economy on course to stagnate or contract... 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Phase one trade deal still light on details This week brought another round of, on the whole, positive economic data, while the signing of the phase one US-China trade deal next week should further bolster confidence. With tensions in the... 10th January 2020 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Some good news for Q4 but 2020 still looks soft Trade and retail sales data for November both provided some reason to be optimistic about GDP growth in Q4. But looking past the positive headlines, we still think the outlook for domestic demand in... 10th January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook The road to recovery After a year to forget in 2019, a combination of policy loosening and more effective measures to deal with the malaise in the shadow banking sector will push economic growth in India back up to a... 9th January 2020 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Nov.) The sharp rise in the trade balance in November is consistent with the contribution from net exports to GDP growth rising sharply in the fourth quarter but the weakness in imports suggests domestic... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
International Merchandise Trade (Nov.) November’s sharp falls in export and import volumes point to another weak month for activity and suggest that GDP stagnated in the fourth quarter. But given that the trade weakness in November was... 7th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The sharp narrowing in the trade deficit to $43.1bn in November, from $46.9bn, was driven by another fall in imports that will be reversed in the coming months. Nevertheless, net trade appears to have... 7th January 2020 · 2 mins read
