US Economics Weekly Economy shrugging off trade uncertainty Concerns over trade policy weighed on the markets this week, with only a brief respite from President Donald Trump’s last-minute decision to cancel the planned announcement of new investment... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Quarterly National Accounts (Q1) Despite the upward revision to Q1 GDP growth, the breakdown left the economy looking a little more fragile than before. But there are still reasons to be optimistic about the growth outlook. 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa employment, Nigeria targets imports again This week’s South African employment figures were less positive than they appear at first glance. Elsewhere, official economic growth slowed in Ghana in Q1. New poverty estimates caused a storm in... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q2) Vietnam’s economy recorded another quarter of strong growth in the second quarter of the year. While growth should remain robust in the near term, helped by continued solid export demand and loose... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Trade tensions cast a wide net Concerns about the escalation in trade tensions and the potential negative implications for global GDP growth have sparked a sell-off in commodity markets this month. However, even if fears of a trade... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Four signs equity investors are worrying about trade Trade tensions have not caused any dramatic moves yet, but there are at least four clear signs in the equity markets of investors becoming more nervous about the possibility of a global trade war. 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Aussie and kiwi dollars may depreciate further The Australian and New Zealand dollars have weakened to US$0.74 and US$0.68 respectively as rising trade tensions between the US and China have reduced the appetite for riskier currencies. Looking... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How hard could car tariffs hit the euro-zone? President Trump’s threat to retaliate to EU tariffs with a 20% tax on EU car exports sounds alarming. In fact, the direct effect on the euro-zone would be smaller than you might think, perhaps... 26th June 2018 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How hard could car tariffs hit the euro-zone? President Trump’s threat to retaliate to EU tariffs with a 20% tax on EU car exports sounds alarming. In fact, the direct effect on the euro-zone would be smaller than you might think, perhaps... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More to Chile’s short-term debt than meets the eye Chile’s short-term external debt burden is one of the largest in the emerging world, but there is more to it than meets the eye. A large chunk reflects intercompany lending, and most of this is... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (May) The latest trade data for India and China show divergent trends in imports of gold by the two largest consumers. China’s gold imports rose strongly in May on the back of robust wholesale consumption... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Philippines: A two-year progress report on President Duterte Two years after coming to power, President Duterte of the Philippines has not been the disaster for the economy that some feared. Growth has remained strong, while economic policy has been left in the... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade makes a partial recovery as tensions build The rebound in world trade volumes in April offers some reassurance that global trade has not collapsed. And while recent survey and “hard” data are giving some mixed signals about the near-term... 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Time to worry about a trade war? Trade tensions have escalated faster and further than we had originally anticipated, capped this week by President Trump’s threat to apply a 10% tariff to $200bn of imports from China. We still think... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Heat rising over trade, inflation cooling While Japan has close economic ties to both the US and China, it shouldn’t be too badly affected if the trade dispute between them heats up. Perhaps the main concern is that a trade war would cause... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB under pressure, Nigerian budget signifies little Markets are getting ahead of themselves by pricing in rate hikes in South Africa. Policymakers have explicitly said that they will not react to currency moves until they see a lasting effect on... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
