China Economics Weekly Property financing slows, pig stock steadies, FDI stalls There are no signs that policy tightening on the property sector is abating, with data published this week showing a further rise in mortgage rates and a continued slowdown in lending to the sector... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
China Economics Focus Decoupling, and its impact on growth The rift that has widened between China and the US was caused by China’s emergence as a geopolitical competitor to the US, rather than the personality of Donald Trump. Decoupling will continue whether... 17th October 2019 · 20 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports facing a bumpy recovery The EM export recovery paused in August and September, although we think exports should still strengthen over the coming quarters. This isn’t because of developments in the trade war – the recent... 17th October 2019 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update Goods trade deficit will stay in check India’s goods trade deficit narrowed to a seven-month low in September and we think that it will remain small over the coming quarters as low oil prices continue to keep a lid on imports. 16th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA to cut to 0.25% and launch QE The end of the housing downturn has reduced the risk of a recession and we expect GDP growth in Australia to edge up from 1.7% this year to 2.0% in 2020. However, that’s still well below potential and... 15th October 2019 · 23 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity imports set to slow China’s commodity imports held up rather better than imports of other goods in September. However, we think import volumes will tail off in the months ahead amid faltering economic activity. 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update US and China no closer to a lasting resolution The US is attempting to pluck low-hanging fruit first, rather than hold out for a more complete trade deal with China. But reaching an agreement on the more contentious structural issues remains an... 14th October 2019 · 4 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Sep.) The contraction in both exports and imports deepened last month. Import growth should start to recover soon. But with the mini US-China trade deal unlikely to alleviate the main headwinds facing... 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Lasting trade deal elusive, holidaymakers stay home The US and China may be on the brink of a mini deal that postpones the US tariffs that are due to come into force next Tuesday. But with the key structural issues no closer to being resolved, we... 11th October 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update Government to limit adverse effect from no deal tariffs The government’s latest no deal tariff plans released yesterday provide us with some reassurance that although there will be some hit to the economy from higher tariffs it won’t be as big as most... 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Headwinds strengthening We still think that the impact of October’s sales tax hike on consumption will be smaller than after previous tax hikes. But the outlook for external demand remains poor and firms have become less... 9th October 2019 · 22 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Sep.) China’s FX reserves declined unexpectedly last month but officials claim this was due to valuation effects and muted outflow pressures suggest that the PBOC will have felt little urgency to run down... 7th October 2019 · 2 mins read
International Merchandise Trade (Aug.) The trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in August thanks to a strong rise in export prices but, with export volumes falling and import volumes rising, it appears net trade was a drag on third-quarter... 4th October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) & International Trade (Aug.) The 136,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September illustrates that while growth in employment (and broader activity) has slowed, it is not collapsing. Otherwise, the employment report was... 4th October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Financial decoupling, Hong Kong retail collapse The restrictions on US capital flows into China reportedly being considered by the Trump administration would, at the margin, constrain China’s ability to fund overseas investment. But given China’s... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The narrowing in the trade surplus in August was mostly driven by a decline in export prices so we doubt that net trade will be a drag on GDP growth in Q3. Even so, we estimate that the contribution... 3rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
