China Data Response Trade & FX Reserves (Aug.) Exports fell last month as global demand softened and US tariffs continued to take their toll. Imports improved thanks to strong infrastructure spending but remain consistent with a further economic... 9th September 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Gold losing its shine, equities have further to fall Gold prices remain close to record highs in rupee terms, but the latest numbers on gold import volumes should assuage any concerns over the impact on the external position. Meanwhile, the Sensex has... 6th September 2019 · 5 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) The small narrowing in the trade deficit in July was driven by a rise in exports and leaves net trade on track to be nothing worse than a small drag on GDP growth in the third quarter. But that drag... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
International Merchandise Trade (Jul.) July’s trade data show that non-energy exports are holding up better than the business surveys might suggest, while the weakness in key import components suggests domestic demand growth remains weak. 4th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) & GDP Partials (Q2) The weakness in retail sales isn’t too concerning as most households wouldn’t have received their tax refunds by the end of July. We therefore still expect that GDP growth bottomed out in Q2. However... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade, Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) Weak trade data for Korea and the weakness of regional manufacturing PMIs in August suggest that economic conditions failed to improve in the middle of this quarter. While we suspect that regional GDP... 2nd September 2019 · 3 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (August) The latest survey data suggest that exports have continued to struggle but that factory activity was propped up by stronger infrastructure spending. 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Current account surplus won’t last long RBA Deputy Governor Debelle argued this week that Australia’s net foreign liability position makes Australia less vulnerable than many believe because its net foreign assets tend to rise when the... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update Further FDI reform is still likely Measures announced by the government yesterday to loosen restrictions on FDI are a welcome step and we think that further reforms aimed at attracting foreign investment are likely over the coming... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Transhipments and weaker RMB are blunting US tariffs China’s share of global exports has increased over the past year, despite US tariffs. Renminbi depreciation and the transhipments of goods to the US via neighbouring countries can take much of the... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade slows further as US-China tensions ratchet up World trade volumes contracted again in the second quarter, and forward-looking indicators suggest that trade growth is likely to stay subdued, just as the US-China trade war is heating up again. 27th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update Trade deal reduces the risk of US car tariffs The trade deal that the US and Japan have negotiated won’t provide major benefits for Japan’s economy. And while it seems to have reduced the risk that the US imposes any tariffs on Japanese car... 27th August 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update US tariffs strengthen the case for easing, weaker RMB With President Trump adding yet more US tariffs to the pipeline, the impact on China’s economy is starting to add up. With the drag on GDP growth set to rise to nearly one percentage point before long... 26th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Political risk back on the agenda Despite the poor global outlook, GDP growth across Emerging Asia actually picked up slightly in the second quarter, and our forecast is for a further gradual recovery over the remainder of the year... 26th August 2019 · 16 mins read
China Economics Update China focuses its fire in retaliation The tariffs announced today by China’s government are a departure from previous rounds of retaliation: they focus almost entirely on further raising tariffs on products that have already been targeted... 23rd August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly US-UK trade deal unlikely to get off the ground We have our doubts that a US-UK trade deal, even a “modular” one, will be easily achievable if there is a no deal Brexit. In any case, the bigger issue will still be the trading relationship between... 23rd August 2019 · 4 mins read
