US Economics Weekly Trade policy still a clear downside risk President Donald Trump may have reached an agreement to overhaul NAFTA this week but, as his interview with Bloomberg on Thursday highlighted, his protectionist instincts haven’t gone anywhere. They... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at EM external financing risks The sell-off in EM currencies has cast the spotlight onto external vulnerabilities in the emerging world, although there are important nuances to take into account. In this Update, we take a closer... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines to scrap rice quotas, new tax in Malaysia The Philippines looks to be on the verge of passing legislation to allow in more rice imports. If the bill passes, it should lead to a sharp drop in inflation and would reduce the pressure for further... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Argentina back in crisis The sell-off in the Argentine peso this month gathered pace after the government’s impromptu request to draw down more of its IMF bailout. Rather than soothing market tensions, this reinforced... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigerian growth slows, MTN fined, Theresa May in Africa Nigeria’s economy slowed in Q2, despite stronger non-oil growth. More recently, an unexpectedly big fine imposed on MTN this week will raise questions about the country’s regulatory environment. The... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Trade war or cold war? The end of the summer in Beijing has brought with it a hardening of views on the trade dispute with the US. Increasingly, tariffs are being seen not as negotiating ploys to win run-of-the-mill... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisian dinar falls further, Lebanon in the spotlight The Tunisian dinar has continued to decline over the past week and we think that the currency has further to fall. However, any moves should be fairly gradual. Elsewhere, the recent widening of... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asian currencies remain resilient Asian currencies have continued to hold up pretty well over the past few weeks despite the turmoil in EM currency markets. Since the start of August, the Korean won and the Thai baht have actually... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank on pause ahead of October rate rise Even if NAFTA negotiations are concluded successfully this week, the Bank of Canada is likely to wait until October before it raises interest rates. 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Growth in Chile and Peru to hold up well The surge in GDP growth in Q2 to more than 5% in Chile and Peru probably marks the peak in both countries’ economic cycle. But there is still some spare capacity left. And, as a result, we expect that... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update After Mexico, could a US-China deal follow? This week’s agreement between the US and Mexico has raised hopes that the US and China could also resolve their dispute. But the agreement with Mexico underlines how much hangs on whether President... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update UK-Africa trade ties will remain limited UK Prime Minister Theresa May is using a visit to Africa to promote economic ties with the region, but we doubt that trade links between Britain and Sub-Saharan Africa will strengthen over the coming... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Households holding up well Australian households have been more resilient to low income growth and falling house prices than we expected. After rising by just 0.3% q/q in the first quarter, the solid rises in retail sales in... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Germany’s current account surplus ever shrink? Germany’s current account surplus is likely to narrow over the coming years, but we suspect that it will remain very large. So there is little chance that economic rebalancing in Germany will help to... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update US trade deal a win for Mexico The preliminary bilateral trade deal between Mexico and the US, announced yesterday, is a far cry from the radical overhaul of the two countries’ trading relationship that many had feared. Tighter... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update US-Mexico trade deals shows compromise is possible Today’s announcement of a bilateral trade agreement is definitely good news for Mexico and the US, but could be good or very bad for Canada. More generally, it illustrates that, despite the Trump... 27th August 2018 · 1 min read
