Global Trade Monitor Further slowdown likely We expect the slowdown in world trade growth to continue next year as global demand weakens. Meanwhile, US-China trade tensions have risen – both countries imposed further tariffs on each other’s... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update KORUS signed, but protectionist threat remains The revised Korea-US free trade agreement (KORUS) that was formally signed yesterday removes one of the potential downside risks for Korean exporters. However, with the US-China trade war intensifying... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Investors under-pricing NAFTA risks The loonie continued to appreciate against the greenback this week, despite there seemingly being little chance of the US and Canada reaching a NAFTA deal before the month-end deadline. Investors... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising interest rates will take their toll in 2019 The surge in market interest rates, which continued this week, is already feeding through to higher borrowing costs for households and businesses and leaves us increasingly confident in our view that... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Markets surge, China considers import tariff cuts China’s financial markets shrugged off this week’s confirmation that both the US and China will be expanding their tariffs on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite actually having its best week since... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Rates hikes coming in the Philippines, markets resilient Rising inflationary pressures in the Philippines mean the country’s central bank is likely to raise interest rates by 50bp at its meeting next week. Bank Indonesia is also likely to raise rates, but... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Our new forecasts and the RBA’s trade war fears After revamping all our forecasts, we have concluded that the RBA and the RBNZ probably won’t raise interest rates until late in 2020 and late in 2021 respectively. That explains why we now expect the... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What’s driving stronger Saudi capital outflows? Capital outflows from Saudi Arabia have picked up over the past 18 months, but the bulk of this seems to reflect ongoing foreign investments by the sovereign wealth fund. A bigger concern from the... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Shifts in trade policy There have been some notable shifts in Indian policymakers’ approach to foreign trade over the past month. For a start, the continued slide in the rupee caused the government to announce measures to... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Weak balance sheets come under the spotlight Balance sheets in the largest MENA economies have received a lot of attention over the past couple of years, but more recently there has been increasing scrutiny of those in some of the region’s... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Trade may trump rates as a driver of the US dollar Judging by what has happened in recent months, President Trump’s attitude to global trade could remain a more important driver of the US dollar than the prospects for monetary policy in the US and... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Aug.) Import volumes seem to have outpaced export volumes yet again in August which supports our view that net trade remained a drag on Q3 GDP growth. 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Taking stock of the new tariffs With a further $200bn of US tariffs now confirmed, and China reiterating that it will retaliate with tariffs of its own, we take stock in this short note of where China stands in the trade war. 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Taking stock of the new tariffs With a further $200bn of US tariffs now confirmed, and China reiterating that it will retaliate with tariffs of its own, we take stock in this short note of where China stands in the trade war. 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports: Weakness ahead EM exports have shrugged off trade tensions in recent months, but US tariffs due to take effect later this month will add to headwinds. Softer commodity prices and weaker global growth will also weigh... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The winners and losers from the latest tariffs on China US plans to impose tariffs on an additional $200bn of Chinese imports are unlikely to have a significant impact on most economies in Emerging Asia, including China. Over the long term there could even... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
