Commodities Update China’s commodity imports holding up well The solid growth in China’s commodity import volumes appears at odds with data pointing to softer economic activity. As such, we expect import volumes to turn down in the coming months. 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Sep.) Exports continued to defy US tariffs last month but imports softened in the face of cooling domestic demand. We expect both to weaken in the coming quarters as economic growth slows in China and among... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana & Côte d’Ivoire: Cocoa cooperation remains limited The Ghanaian and Ivorian authorities’ failure to agree on a harmonised farm-gate cocoa price dampened hopes of a ‘Choc-OPEC’ that could effectively influence the global market. But collaboration in... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Which countries are manipulating their currencies? The US Treasury is due to report soon which of its major trading partners, if any, have been manipulating their currencies for unfair advantage. Vietnam is currently the only country in Emerging Asia... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Balance of Payments (Aug.) Turkey’s current account position improved further in August adding to the evidence that a weaker lira is helping the economy to rebalance. But this adjustment has almost entirely reflect a slump in... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Rapid growth to continue for a while yet GDP growth has surged in recent quarters and, while it has probably peaked, we expect it to remain strong ahead of the general election in the first half of 2019. Thereafter, a focus on fiscal... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Growth to slow further despite policy easing Policymakers have responded to growing signs of weakness in China’s domestic economy by ramping up policy support. But with momentum still slowing and trade tensions escalating, growth will not... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Strength of Romanian leu built on shaky foundations The Romanian central bank’s FX intervention this year has kept the leu artificially strong, causing economic imbalances to build. Unless policymakers change course soon and loosen their grip on the... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Gradual slowdown to continue Even if the current drift towards an all-out trade war between the US and China is halted (which we doubt), weaker global demand will drag on regional exports. With domestic demand also likely to... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus A helping hand from the diaspora Remittances from abroad are a vital – yet often underappreciated – source of funding for India at the macro level, and provide significant financial support for millions of families. Remittances may... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly USMCA boosts rates, adding pressure to housing The changes to Canada’s trading relationship with the US and Mexico do not, on their own, have big implications for the economy. By removing uncertainty, the agreement will help to keep economic... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Surging interest rates will worsen eventual slowdown The recent strength of the economy appears to be pushing Fed officials in an increasingly hawkish direction. But the corresponding surge in market interest rates this week only reinforces our own view... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) & International Trade (Aug.) The weaker 134,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September may well be a one-off, reflecting some hit from Hurricane Florence. With large upward revisions to previous months’ payroll gains, a fall in... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) & Int. Trade (Aug.) September’s impressive rebound in employment is another reason to think that the Bank of Canada will pull the trigger on a rate hike later this month. While we think that the current strength of the... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s rising oil output, Turkish lira back under pressure The sharp rise in Russian oil output in September, and talk this week of further increases, suggests that the recovery in Russia’s economy has further to run. The Turkish lira has come under pressure... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s revised GDP, Uganda hikes, Rand faces tough month New GDP figures have presented a more flattering picture of Ghana’s economy, though obviously actual output remains unchanged. The Bank of Uganda hiked its key interest rate this week, adding to signs... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
