Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Currency rallies ease pressure on central banks The recent rallies in the Russian ruble and the Turkish lira have added weight to our view that central banks in both countries will refrain from tightening policy further when they meet next week... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Markets right to fret about rising interest rates The fall in equity prices over the past couple of weeks is hard to square with the recent economic data, which suggest that GDP growth was 3.0% annualised in the third quarter. The sell-off appears... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global fallout from a no deal Brexit would be modest While a disorderly no deal Brexit might, depending on its nature, deliver a significant short-term blow to the UK economy and financial markets, any global fallout would probably be small. 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Sep.) Net exports probably remained a drag on GDP growth in the third quarter. It now looks likely that economic activity came to a standstill in Q3. 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Turkey and Argentina not out of the woods The collapses in the Turkish lira and Argentine peso last quarter have caused bank and sovereign debt risks, respectively, to mount in those countries. Meanwhile, financial vulnerabilities are brewing... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weaker currencies to provide only a modest boost The falls in most Latin American currencies this year have improved competiveness, but the conditions don’t seem to be in place for this to translate into a significant increase in net exports. 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit will continue to moderate The narrowing in India’s merchandise trade deficit in September should help to temper some of the concerns that have recently been building over the external position. And looking ahead, we think that... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.) Our Tracker suggests that capital outflows from the emerging world remained small last month, and flows into EM bond and equity markets have recovered as the crises in Turkey and Argentina have eased... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will a trade war sink the global economy? It would require a significant escalation from the measures seen so far for a trade war to be the trigger of the next global downturn. The bigger risks at this stage are that lower-level skirmishes... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will a trade war sink the global economy? It would require a significant escalation from the measures seen so far for a trade war to be the trigger of the next global downturn. The bigger risks at this stage are that lower-level skirmishes... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: strong baht will not stop rate hikes There are good reasons for the Bank of Thailand not to hike interest rates at its next meeting, as it currently appears determined to do. But currency strength is not one of them. 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Revisiting the fallout from the US-China trade war Even though Australia is strongly dependent on the health of China’s economy, it won’t suffer much from China’s escalating trade conflict with the US. If anything, in the near-term it will benefit... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Back down to earth in Q3 Japan’s economy was always likely to slow in the third quarter after the surge of output it generated in the second. But the latest data have still been rather disappointing. While investment remains... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor USMCA shows Trump can stand down, but headwinds build Agreements signed in recent weeks indicate that the US may be willing to de-escalate trade disputes in order to achieve face-saving deals. Elsewhere, growing economic headwinds suggest that EM export... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan and IMF start talks, equities set for further falls The head of the IMF, Christine Legarde this week set the tone for what are likely to be tough negotiations with Pakistan when she said the Fund would require Pakistan to be “absolutely transparent”... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade likely to slow, but not collapse After slowing sharply since the start of the year, we think that trade growth will lose further momentum in the coming months. But we doubt that there will be anything worse than a modest slowdown. 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
