Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Victoria restrictions didn’t hit as hard as initially feared The surge in case numbers due to the second wave in Melbourne has been brought under control with new daily cases falling back towards zero. Heavy restrictions on activity still remain in place in... 30th September 2020 · 10 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Encouraging signs in Korea Korea looks to have contained its “second wave” of the virus with minimum cost to the economy. There were just 38 newly confirmed cases in Korea today, which was the lowest since early August and down... 29th September 2020 · 13 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Growth concerns mounting in Nigeria Nigeria is facing an uphill battle to breathe life into its economic recovery. Following a sharp 6.1% y/y fall in GDP in Q2, more recent figures suggest that activity remains muted. Admittedly, Google... 29th September 2020 · 13 mins read
China Chart Pack Policymakers refocus on property developer debt The speed at which officials in China have pivoted from crisis response to another round of restrictions on property developers has caught many by surprise. Developers might have hoped that they would... 28th September 2020 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: weak recovery, new currency forecasts Inadequate fiscal support is holding back growth in the Philippines and, unless this improves, the recovery will continue to underwhelm. Meanwhile, despite the recent sell-off in EM currency markets... 25th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan and Vietnam: outperformance continues Continued trade tensions between the US and China are providing a significant boost to economic prospects in Taiwan and Vietnam. Having also successfully contained the virus without significant... 25th September 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Services “outperformance” unlikely to last In contrast to many other economies, the 20% y/y slump in India’s services sector in Q2 was less pronounced than that in industry, which collapsed by almost 40% y/y. But we doubt that the... 24th September 2020 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira to fall further as policy response fails to appease The Turkish lira has continued to weaken in recent weeks and, with the response by policymakers likely to fail to placate investors, we now expect the currency to fall to as low as 9.25/$ by the end... 23rd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus Globalisation will stall in the wake of COVID-19 Global supply chains have functioned well this year despite the disruption of social distancing and lockdowns, and people in many places appear more appreciative of migrants. But the pandemic is... 22nd September 2020 · 25 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Sep.) Exports rebounded to pre-crisis levels for the first time in the first 20 days of September and, while we don’t necessarily think export values will keep going from strength to strength, today’s data... 21st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan policy rate set for an extended hold With the economy holding up relatively well, the decision by Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) to leave interest rates on hold came as no surprise. Further rate cuts are unlikely, and we expect interest... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export recovery will be a long slog The rebound in EM exports continued in July, but further gains will be harder to come by from here. Indeed, the initial boost from re-opening economies is likely to fade and the slowing global... 17th September 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Trade data point to sluggish demand recovery The widening in India’s goods trade deficit in August won’t put the external position at risk, but the underlying data suggest that the recovery in external and domestic demand is stuttering. 16th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Aug.) Exports continued to recover in August while import volumes fell. Indeed, we expect net trade to provide a sizeable boost to growth this quarter following a huge drag in Q2. 16th September 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Jul.) The strong 6.6% m/m rise in GDP in July suggests that the record-breaking negative growth rate of GDP in Q2 will be followed by a record-breaking positive growth rate in Q3. However, July was probably... 11th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th Sep.) Korean exports rose in levels terms in the first 10 days of September and, with trading-partner economies still getting back on their feet, we expect further gradual improvements in external demand. 11th September 2020 · 2 mins read
