Monthly GDP & International Trade (Jul.)

The strong 6.6% m/m rise in GDP in July suggests that the record-breaking negative growth rate of GDP in Q2 will be followed by a record-breaking positive growth rate in Q3. However, July was probably the last of the big step ups in activity and a full recovery is unlikely to be achieved until early 2022, which is why we think the Bank of England will yet expand QE by a further £250bn in total.

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