India Economic Outlook The long road back to normality India’s failure to contain the coronavirus and the government’s underwhelming policy response mean the economy will suffer its largest drop in annual output on record this year. In addition, the... 7th July 2020 · 16 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA trade data, oil producers in the line of fire South Africa’s external sector probably shifted from being an economic tailwind to a headwind in the second quarter. Meanwhile, Africa’s oil producers are facing mounting pressure from OPEC to comply... 3rd July 2020 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (May) The merchandise trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to $0.7bn in May, from $4.3bn, as exports were boosted by the reopening of motor vehicle production plants and the rebound in crude oil prices. 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (May) The trade balance was broadly stable in May but given significant price effects, trade may have been another drag on GDP growth in Q2. 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update A brief foray into current account surplus India’s current account swung into a rare surplus in Q1. That probably won’t last for long as oil prices rebound, remittances drop and the trade deficit starts to widen again over the coming months... 1st July 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Jun.) Korean export values nudged up very slightly in June, after collapsing in April and May, but while external demand is probably now past the worst, it is only likely to recover slowly in the coming... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economies coming roaring back Restrictions on activity have lifted in both countries. While some states in Australia still limit the size of groups and capacity at restaurants, New Zealand has now lifted all domestic restrictions... 30th June 2020 · 10 mins read
UK Data Response Quarterly National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q1) The 2.2% q/q drop in GDP in Q1 2020 was the joint largest fall since 1979 and sets the stage for an unprecedented 15-20% fall in Q2, despite evidence that the economy rebounded in May and June. 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Sharpest monthly contraction in world trade on record April’s world trade data confirmed that coronavirus restrictions have taken a very heavy toll on trade flows. But the damage has been slightly less severe than we had feared and more timely data from... 25th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update A look at Australia’s corporate balance sheets We estimate that the revenues of firms in most sectors were still too low in mid-June to generate profits. If those conditions persisted, nearly one-third of firms would run out of cash by the end of... 25th June 2020 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Financial conditions ease but headwinds remain After tightening dramatically in March following the outbreak of the coronavirus, our proprietary index shows that financial conditions in India have eased substantially over the past couple of months... 24th June 2020 · 9 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th June) Korean trade data for the first 20 days of June suggest that the slump in exports is probably past the worse. But the recovery in external demand in the quarters ahead is likely to be a protracted one... 22nd June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Sino-Indian relations worsen, local lockdowns loom We can only hope that border tensions between India and China ease soon and there is no direct economic impact. But there may be indirect consequences. A further push back against Chinese investment... 19th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Three key points on the latest export data EM goods exports have slumped during the coronavirus crisis but perhaps by less than might have been expected. Indeed, shipments from parts of Asia appear to have been boosted by a surge in demand for... 18th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore Trade (May) The strength of the pharmaceutical and electronics sectors has helped Singaporean exports to outperform and is one reason why we are revising up our GDP growth forecast for 2020 from -8.0%, to -6.0%. 17th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (May) Import values fell much more than export values in May but that was mostly due to lower crude oil prices. Across Q2, net trade provided a sizeable drag on GDP growth. However, conditions should... 17th June 2020 · 2 mins read
