Africa Economics Update Rwanda: Growth will fall short of ambitious targets Rwanda’s investment-focused and state-managed development model is delivering rapid growth and we expect the country to remain one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies. However, the government is... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Trade war set to escalate The US appears to be on the verge of expanding its tariffs to cover a total of $250bn of Chinese goods, the production of which generates 1.3% of China’s GDP. The proposed $200bn tariff list includes... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Stronger dollar will hold back exports The economy remains strong, with the fiscal stimulus still providing a big boost but, looking beyond headline GDP growth, there are signs that rising interest rates and the resurgent dollar are... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly NAFTA talks drag on; housing remains vulnerable The NAFTA negotiations between Canada and the US rumbled on this week, with few signs of a breakthrough during what Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland described as a “continuous negotiation”... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Peso plunges, Korea’s labour market woes continue A widening trade deficit in the Philippines has put renewed downward pressure on the peso over the past week, creating a further headache for the central bank. Meanwhile, in Korea, the recent weakness... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q2) & Goods Trade (Jul.) The pick-up in euro-zone wage growth in Q2 adds to signs that inflationary pressures in the region are building. This will encourage the ECB that it is right to be normalising monetary policy. But... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly China settling in for long haul on trade Both sides in the US-China trade dispute have struck a more conciliatory tone in recent days. The White House has proposed renewed high-level talks. Meanwhile, Chinese officials are rowing back... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Japanese exporters back in the firing line Recent comments by President Trump suggest that he may target Japan next in his efforts to reduce the US trade deficit. Trump may want Japan to increase pressure on China to end unfair trading... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) Last month’s currency crises in Turkey and Argentina triggered broad-based weakness in EM financial markets, but our Capital Flows Tracker suggests that aggregate outflows were relatively modest. 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trade war with China not a big risk to the outlook Recent developments suggest that the trade dispute with China will continue to escalate over the coming months, with a rising possibility that by early next year all bilateral trade could be subject... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Exports to slow, even if trade war is avoided Asian exports are holding up well for now, but this strength is unlikely to last. Even if the current drift towards an all-out trade war between the US and China is halted (which we doubt), weaker... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How do EMs adjust after a currency crisis? In the three years after a currency crisis, EMs almost always experience a collapse in imports, but the performance of exports is more mixed. Argentina looks similar to those economies that have seen... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Lebanon lurching towards a crisis? Lebanon’s recent political deadlock has reignited fears over the country’s weak balance sheets. A fresh escalation of tensions with the Gulf is still a major threat and, as we’ve warned before, this... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German slowdown can’t be pinned on trade tensions The role of weakening exports in Germany’s recent slowdown makes it tempting to pin the whole thing on trade tensions. But the slowdown began before Trump’s tariff threats and seems more likely to... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The macroeconomic fallout from a China-US trade war For many companies the effects of the US and China imposing tariffs on all their bilateral trade would be substantial. But the macroeconomic consequences for the two countries, let alone the wider... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Labour gaining the upper hand Summer bonuses rose the most since 1991 this year. That is partly a reflection of the surge in corporate profits in recent years. But workers are earning more than their fair share of the pie. Labour... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
