India Economics Update Strong FDI inflows boosting external position India’s current account deficit remained at a sustainable level in Q2, confounding the fears that some had expressed of a sharp widening. What’s more, the deficit is now being financed primarily by... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Inflation & Trade (Aug.) Consumer price inflation picked up last month, as African swine flu led to a jump in pork prices. But with broad price pressures still relatively subdued, it’s still too soon to sound the alarm on... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada plays down trade risks While the Bank of Canada this week acknowledged the uncertainty created by the ongoing NAFTA negotiations, it also played down the risks of a further deterioration in trade relations. However, given... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Economy holding up despite EM problems Despite the steady flow of negative news about protectionism and crises in emerging economies, global growth is holding up well in Q3. Moreover, the labour market has continued to strengthen... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Is Macri a busted flush? The export tax announced by Argentina’s President Mauricio Macri this week, which formed the centrepiece of an emergency fiscal austerity package, will help to narrow the budget deficit. But the fact... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa in recession, Focac summit, Kenya fuel costs Figures released this week showed that South Africa’s economy performed even worse than we’d thought in Q2. Headline growth will probably recover in the second half of the year, but we’ve downgraded... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Downgrading our forecasts for Argentina The recent turmoil in local markets means that Argentina’s recession will be even deeper than we previously anticipated. We now expect a 4% drop in GDP over 2018 as a whole (vs. -0.5% previously), and... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa & China: Putting the Focac summit in context Attention focused on China-Africa ties this week as leaders from across the continent met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing for a major summit. In this Update we attempt to situate the... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q2) The improvement in South Africa’s current account deficit in Q2 should help to ease concerns about the country’s external financing needs and provide some support to the rand. Coming alongside the... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jul.) It looks as though the contribution to real GDP growth in the third quarter from net exports will be similar to the 0.1 percentage point added in the second quarter. But the near-stagnation in imports... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) The sharp widening in the nominal trade deficit to a five-month high of $50.1bn in July, from $45.7bn, suggests that the big boost to GDP growth from net exports in the second quarter will be reversed... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jul.) The unexpected narrowing of the trade deficit in July to just $0.1bn, from June’s $0.7bn, suggests that economic growth might hold up a bit better than we expected in the third quarter. 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four quick points on the trade war While the threat of a US-Mexico trade war may have diminished, the trade conflict between the US and China looks set to escalate. And overall, protectionist rhetoric and policies are likely to... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina relapses, Mexican peso muted on trade deal The sense of crisis that engulfed Argentina on Wednesday and Thursday seems to have eased today and, while there is a clear risk that the currency falls further in the near term, based on the real... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four quick points on the trade war While the threat of a US-Mexico trade war may have diminished, the trade conflict between the US and China looks set to escalate. And overall, protectionist rhetoric and policies are likely to... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada to take spotlight from NAFTA talks While the US and Canada are aiming to reach a compromise over NAFTA today, at this stage it’s still unclear whether this will happen. Either way, next week the Bank of Canada will take the spotlight... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
