India Economics Update Trade data provide cold comfort The slight easing in the y/y contraction in goods exports and imports in May supports evidence from elsewhere that the worst has now passed for the economy. But both remain extremely weak, and a sharp... 16th June 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Apr.) At its peak in April the lockdown reduced economic output by 25%, making the coronavirus crisis by far the deepest recession on record. The peak-to-trough fall in GDP was 7% in both the Global... 12th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th June) Korean trade data for the first ten days of June suggest that the external environment improved slightly at the start of last month. We suspect this will mark the start of a long and slow recovery. 11th June 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Trade (May) Export growth turned negative last month as lockdowns abroad weighted on global demand. And the ongoing domestic recovery failed to keep import growth from slipping further. A global recovery and... 8th June 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The international trade deficit widened to $49.4bn in April, from $42.3bn, as exports slumped by a massive 20.5% m/m, outpacing a 13.7% m/m decline in imports. 4th June 2020 · 2 mins read
International Trade (Apr.) Exports and imports should start to rise in May following the record slumps in April but, with export orders still weak and the rail freight data showing further declines, the recovery looks set to be... 4th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Trade (Apr.) The slump in retail sales in April should be followed by a strong rebound as restrictions are eased. However, both exports and imports will remain weak as the border closure weighs on services trade. 4th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Weak external demand to weigh on recoveries Disruption to supply chains and depressed demand mean that euro-zone goods exports will slump this year, hitting open economies such as the Netherlands and Germany the most. But the hit to services... 3rd June 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (May) Korean export values sank further in May after collapsing in April, and while this is likely to mark the bottom, external demand is only likely to recover very slowly in the coming months. 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update How bad is the outlook for exports? Given the collapse in the global economy, merchandise exports from Emerging Asia have so far held up better than might have been anticipated. The fact that the global slump has been driven by services... 29th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Normal still a long way off As the lockdowns have largely come to an end in both countries, output is starting to recover. In New Zealand, most activity is now allowed to resume, though gatherings are limited to 100 people. In... 29th May 2020 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly HK security law pours fuel on US-China tensions The central government’s decision to impose national security legislation on Hong Kong risks undermining the city’s economic success and the US response may add to those headwinds. More broadly, the... 29th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Trade volumes down for third month and worse is to come Given that the lockdowns were implemented in most countries in March, the 1.4% m/m contraction in world trade volumes seems fairly muted. However, the global number was flattered by a sharp rebound in... 27th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strong imports, Kansai gets back up and running The resilience of imports in both March and April has prompted us to significantly revise up our forecast for Q2 goods and services imports. However, the nature of the current downturn means that... 22nd May 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China decoupling, property prices, trade outlook The main event this week is the opening of the National People’s Congress (NPC) later today. We’ll publish our analysis of the key NPC reports once they are released. The NPC aside, US-China tensions... 22nd May 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Apr.) Exports plunged in April and are set to continue falling sharply for a while yet with economic activity in Japan’s main trading partners remaining extremely depressed. 21st May 2020 · 2 mins read
