Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech-China tensions, Poland’s birth rate slumps The increase in tensions between the newly elected Czech president and Chinese authorities this week highlights the risk of a fracturing of economic ties between the two countries. For Czechia, China... 3rd February 2023 · 10 mins read
Africa Economics Update Unpacking Nigeria’s economic challenges In the latest of our Election Watch series ahead of Nigeria’s polls, we dissect the near-term economic challenges facing the next administration. Boosting oil production, overhauling the foreign... 3rd February 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Common currency, new FX forecasts, Bolivia’s lithium Argentina and Brazil’s plan to establish a common unit of account to increase bilateral trade and reduce their dependence on the dollar misdiagnoses the main impediments to both goals. Elsewhere... 27th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan closing in on IMF deal By raising interest rates and allowing the currency to fall against the US dollar, Pakistan this week took more steps towards securing new funding from the IMF and avoiding a default. The remaining... 27th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt talks in Zambia and Ghana, SA’s energy crisis Delays to Zambia’s debt restructuring threaten to hold up the country’s IMF deal and add to the signs that the Common Framework isn’t fit for purpose. Elsewhere, Ghana’s government appears to be open... 27th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Leading indicators point to further falls in world trade World trade has fallen in recent months on the back of slowing global growth. COVID-related weakness in Chinese activity in Q4 weighed notably on China’s exports, and while its seemingly rapid... 26th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What China’s re-opening means for Latin America China’s rapid move away from zero-Covid and the resulting rally in commodity prices present upside risks to our GDP forecasts, but we remain of the view that 2023 will be a challenging year for Latin... 26th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Higher commodity prices and the impact on EMs China’s re-opening will have a significant impact on the rest of the emerging world by lifting commodity prices. That will improve the terms of trade of EM commodity producers, particularly Chile... 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM prospects brighten at the start of the year The outlook for emerging markets is looking better than it did just a few weeks ago. Most obviously, China’s shift to living with COVID means that its economy will rebound far sooner than we had... 24th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s shrinking surplus, Israel’s political risks The focus in the media this week on Russia’s record current account surplus in 2022 misses the huge deterioration in that surplus at the end of the year. We think the balance of payments will be... 20th January 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update How many Chinese will hop overseas this year? The Year of the Rabbit that begins on Sunday will see a revival in outbound tourism from China that we expect to be stronger than recoveries seen elsewhere. China is reopening into a world that has... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Electronics optimism, fracturing, vehicle sales drop There are more signs of a growing electronics ecosystem in India. This week, around a dozen suppliers to Apple’s international operations received clearance to expand into the country. And comments... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Dec. 2022) While the trade deficit narrowed further in December, most of that reflects falling import prices. Export volumes likely fell slightly and with the global downturn weighing on external demand, export... 19th January 2023 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Global fracturing: India tilts further away from China India has historically remained unaligned geopolitically but we made the case last year that, in a fracturing global economy, it was more likely to lean towards a US-led bloc and away from a China-led... 18th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Strong FDI inflows likely to continue in CEE The surge in FDI inflows to a 15-year high in Central and Eastern Europe last year will partly unwind this year given the weaker global macro backdrop. But we think that a large part of the increase... 17th January 2023 · 3 mins read
