Latin America Economics Weekly Unpacking Argentina’s IMF agreement The Argentine government’s agreement with the IMF for a new $44.5bn deal is a positive step to improve macroeconomic stability. But, at first glance, the deal seems to be based on rosy economic... 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Global monetary tightening a challenge for MENA Central banks in the Gulf will have to raise interest rates in line with the Fed (which we expect to hike four times both this year and next) by virtue of their dollar pegs, adding to headwinds facing... 28th January 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook A slower recovery in 2022 Growth across much of the emerging world will be weaker this year than last, with Emerging Europe and China in particular likely to fall short of consensus expectations. The EM monetary tightening... 28th January 2022 · 28 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Region to lag behind as debt risks mount Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic recovery from the pandemic is likely to remain one of the weakest of any region over 2022-23 and our GDP growth forecasts are generally below the consensus. The latest... 28th January 2022 · 23 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflationary surge prompting monetary tightening New Zealand’s inflation surged to a 30-year high of 5.9% in Q4. And while Australia’s 3.5% was much lower, it is well above the RBA’s 2-3% target band. Trimmed mean inflation is about one percentage... 28th January 2022 · 11 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Rising virus numbers unlikely to derail recovery The Omicron variant is spreading quickly across Asia. Daily virus numbers are now at record levels in Korea, Singapore and the Philippines. However, the economic impact of Omicron is shaping up to be... 27th January 2022 · 15 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Growth to disappoint, but rates will rise regardless Global growth will be slower this year than last and we expect outturns in major economies including the US and China to be below consensus forecasts. The US economy will be hindered by persistent... 25th January 2022 · 49 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Central banks in no hurry to tighten Omicron should prove no more than a small stumbling block for Asia. Our forecasts are for above-trend and above-consensus growth in most countries this year. India, Indonesia and Korea are likely to... 25th January 2022 · 34 mins read
US Chart Pack Omicron impact short-lived The surge in Omicron infections means more people were self-isolating in early-January than at any time since the beginning of the pandemic, although the impact that will have on employment and output... 24th January 2022 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Falling to the back of the pack The regional recovery will lag further behind others in the emerging world in the coming years. The Omicron-led surge in virus cases presents a risk to growth in the near term, but we suspect that the... 20th January 2022 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds to take the shine off the recovery We expect regional GDP growth to come in below expectations this year as high inflation erodes households’ real incomes and policy becomes more restrictive. Despite this view on the growth outlook, we... 20th January 2022 · 29 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBNZ will ease even as RBA starts to tighten Australia’s Omicron outbreak will hold back the recovery this quarter, but there are plenty of reasons why Australia will outperform New Zealand over the next couple of years. As the labour market has... 20th January 2022 · 25 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Dec. 2021) Exports were broadly stable in December after a sharp rebound in November. We think they’ll continue to recover at a decent pace this year as external demand for capital goods continues to rise and... 20th January 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook On the cusp of policy tightening India’s Omicron wave should only be a temporary setback to the economic recovery. As long as recurrent large waves of COVID are avoided, we think that economic growth will be faster this year than... 19th January 2022 · 18 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor With the notable exception of Turkey, net capital outflows from emerging markets have eased over the past month. However, the global backdrop for EMs this year will be challenging, particularly for... 19th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Current account risks building in Em. Europe & Lat Am The shift to current account surpluses in Indonesia and South Africa suggest that these economies may be better placed to weather any fallout from rising US interest rates than in the past. But... 18th January 2022 · 3 mins read
