Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Feb. 2021) While some of the weakness in exports last month was due to the later timing of the lunar new year, export growth may have been outpaced by import growth this quarter. That suggests that net trade may... 17th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update The outlook for deglobalisation We argued some time ago that globalisation had peaked and a period of deglobalisation might even lie ahead. It is now becoming clearer what to expect – namely a type of regionalism driven by the... 16th March 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update External risks look manageable The narrowing in India’s goods trade deficit in February is likely to soon reverse as the recovery in domestic demand and oil prices pushes up imports. But while this means that India’s recent current... 16th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Eurobond-bonanza? SA’s current account in full swing African policymakers seem to be turning increasingly to international bond markets to finance budget deficits this year, which could add to existing debt vulnerabilities in Ghana and Nigeria... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th Mar.) Korean trade data suggest that the external sector will have its strongest quarter since 2018. With semiconductor demand set to remain elevated, at least in the short term, exports are likely to... 11th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: semiconductor shortages add to H1 headwinds The disruption to auto production caused by semiconductor shortages is yet another reason (alongside tight COVID-19 restrictions) to expect growth in Central and Eastern Europe to struggle in H1 2021. 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports likely to moderate further China’s trade data for January-February show a clear deceleration in the growth of commodity imports. We expect this trend to persist over the course of this year as policy support is gradually... 8th March 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Jan. & Feb.) Export and import growth surged in y/y terms in January and February. Even accounting for favourable base effects, shipments look strong. Exports continued to be buoyed by stuck-at-home foreign... 8th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Trade conflict with China knocking 0.5% off GDP While Australia’s non-iron ore export volumes to China have slumped by 40% over the past year, coal miners have been able to divert their shipments to other countries. The upshot is that the conflict... 4th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Jan.) Retail sales and the trade balance rose in January and while we expect retail sales to be subdued in the months ahead, export values may have further to rise. 4th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Wage growth near its trough Labour markets in both countries have tightened in recent months. In Australia, the unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 7.1% to just 6.4% in January. And other measures of spare capacity have... 1st March 2021 · 11 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Feb. 2021) Korean export values were close to a record high last month, and the external sector should provide another boost to GDP growth this quarter. 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Shipping strains to ease as goods demand moderates While the latest signs are that capacity constraints in global shipping are continuing to bite, we expect these to subside over the course of the year. Indeed, as vaccine rollouts allow economies to... 26th February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Markets reading the roadmap to higher interest rates wrong The surge in 10-year gilt yields to a one-year high of more than 0.80% this week has been driven by the markets’ expectations that the economic recovery will prompt the Bank of England to raise... 26th February 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget 2021 – Preview While policymakers in the US are wrangling about how much additional stimulus is required, the debate in the UK is more about what tax rises are needed to repair the damage to the public finances... 25th February 2021 · 20 mins read
India Chart Pack Activity returning to pre-virus levels Indian GDP data due to be released on Friday are likely to show only a small contraction in annual growth in Q4 2020, and high-frequency indicators point to a relatively strong start to 2021. Indeed... 24th February 2021 · 9 mins read
