Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia entering recession, slowdowns in CEE The war in Ukraine has devasted its economy, while Western sanctions are likely to push Russia into a deep contraction, with GDP set to fall by 12% this year. Immediate fears of a Russian sovereign... 30th March 2022 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Catch-22 for IMF deal 22 One issue the IMF seems to be glossing over in its latest deal with Argentina (the 22 nd in the country’s history) is that the currency looks overvalued. But the adjustment needed to improve the... 30th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack External strains building in North Africa The Gulf stands to benefit from the war in Ukraine. Oil output is likely to be raised more quickly, while higher energy prices will boost export revenues by around 10% of GDP this year, providing some... 30th March 2022 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Frontier debt risks are crystallising The tightening of global financial conditions since the onset of the Fed’s hiking cycle and the war in Ukraine has caused sovereign dollar bond spreads to widen significantly in several frontier... 30th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ’s Yield Curve Control under threat We expect Japan’s economic output to return to its pre-virus path by the end of the year. With the recovery from the pandemic complete, we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.7% this year to just 1.0% in... 30th March 2022 · 23 mins read
US Chart Pack Inflation to fall sharply in H2 While the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russian oil mean energy prices will remain elevated and push headline inflation above 8% in March, it will still fall sharply later this year. Energy... 23rd March 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update The dollar won’t be toppled Claims that the war in Ukraine will prove to be a watershed moment that ends the dollar’s position at the heart of the global financial system are wide of the mark. It could accelerate the development... 23rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update War in Ukraine exacerbates external pressures Shifts in commodity prices in response to the war in Ukraine will provide a sizeable boost to current account positions in Angola and (to a lesser extent) Nigeria this year. Elsewhere, however, higher... 23rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update IMF & Argentina: a historical guide to restoring confidence History suggests that for an IMF deal to restore market confidence, a credible shift towards policy tightening which delivers positive economic results, alongside favourable external conditions, is... 23rd March 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack War in Ukraine to drag on EM GDP growth The war in Ukraine will have several economic repercussions for the emerging world. We have lowered our aggregate EM GDP growth forecast for 2022 by 1%-pt, to 3.2%. Russia aside, the biggest downward... 23rd March 2022 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka running out of options Sri Lanka has no easy choices left as it looks to dig itself out of its economic mess. Outright default or a financing deal with China remain options, but the government appears to be favouring an... 23rd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Assessing public debt risks in Africa In this Update, we roll out our sovereign debt heat map that provides a snapshot of debt risks across Sub-Saharan Africa. The pandemic has increased debt burdens across the continent and, with... 21st March 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tightening would require wage growth of at least 2% Governor Kuroda admitted last week that inflation could hit the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in April but stressed that “that in no way signifies there will be a revision of our current monetary policy”... 21st March 2022 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran nuclear deal, wiring shortage a fillip to North Africa The Iran nuclear deal appears to be on the brink of being revived and, were that to happen, the lifting of sanctions would provide a major direct boost to Iran’s economy. Increased oil output could... 17th March 2022 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack Ukraine war heightens inflation and external risks The surge in commodity prices as a result of the war in Ukraine will have several repercussions for India’s economy. As a major net commodity importer, its terms of trade will deteriorate and we think... 17th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Commodity shifts to worsen most EMs’ external positions Major oil producers are among the main beneficiaries of the rise in commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine. As a result, we’re becoming less concerned about Colombia’s external vulnerabilities. In... 17th March 2022 · 3 mins read
