Export pullback understated, foreign travel to pick up

The export data published by China’s customs bureau appear to have become less reliable recently and subject to unusually large revisions. Alternative indicators suggest that the true level of exports could be as much as 15% lower.

Meanwhile, the recovery in outbound tourism will receive a boost from the lifting of restrictions on group tours to 78 countries. We continue to think that resident departures will return to 75% of the pre-pandemic level by year-end.