Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Oct.) The trade balance widened in October but the widening was partly driven by price effects so we estimate that net exports made little contribution to GDP growth in Q4. 3rd December 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Nov.) Korean export growth continued to gather momentum in November and is set to remain strong in the months ahead, buoyed by foreign demand for electronics. 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade over 90% of way back to pre-virus level While world GDP was probably still about 3% short of its end-2019 level at the end of Q3, world trade had recovered to 1.5% below its pre-virus peak. As long as industry remains relatively unscathed... 30th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Labour markets prove resilient We have been arguing for some time that the unemployment rate would not rise as much as most believed in either Australia or New Zealand. We remain confident in those forecasts. Admittedly, the... 30th November 2020 · 11 mins read
India Economics Weekly Surging portfolio inflows, Q3 GDP, RBI meeting Foreign portfolio inflows into Indian markets, particularly into equities, have surged in November and we think they will remain robust over the coming months. Looking ahead, we agree with market and... 27th November 2020 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Yellen to be first female Treasury Secretary This week the markets were buoyed by the news that President-elect Joe Biden intends to nominate Janet Yellen to be Treasury secretary but, while she is eminently qualified, her lack of political deal... 25th November 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update Fiscal outlook isn’t as bad as it looks The Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, was right to say today that now is not the time to tighten fiscal policy. But given the OBR’s downbeat forecasts, the biggest danger is that the government is lured into... 25th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Employment to decline in December The decline in restaurant visits in the past month suggests that over 100,000 jobs in the accommodation and food services sector were at risk even before most of the Greater Toronto Area moved into... 24th November 2020 · 9 mins read
India Chart Pack Oxford vaccine raises hopes India’s government has not put in any pre-orders for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines that were first to report encouraging Phase 3 trial results. But, alongside the US, India has the largest order of... 24th November 2020 · 9 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Nov.) Buoyant foreign demand for electronics drove strong export growth over the first 20 days of November and this should remain the case over the coming months. 23rd November 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Oct.) October’s public finances figures were far better than expected. But the likely economic contraction in November and extension of the government’s support measures mean that the better news won’t last... 20th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Oct.) October’s public finances figures were far better than expected. But the likely economic contraction in November and extension of the government’s support measures mean that the better news won’t last... 20th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market to tighten, trade tensions to persist Some analysts have expressed optimism that the signing of the RCEP will help ease trade tensions between Australia and China, but we doubt the agreement will do much to calm the waters. Meanwhile, the... 20th November 2020 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack Vaccine hopes set against darkening near-term outlook The continued surge in COVID-19 infections across the country is prompting a growing number of states to reimpose restrictions on activity. The softer retail sales data in October indicated that this... 19th November 2020 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Update Benefits from RCEP set to be modest Given that Japan doesn’t have existing free trade agreements with either China or Korea, it is set to benefit more than other participants from the recently signed RCEP deal. However, tariffs will... 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
