Latin America Chart Pack External vulnerabilities to ease as growth weakens The latest data suggest that current account deficits in the region’s major economies narrowed towards the end of last year, which is particularly good news for Colombia and Chile. Both were running... 22nd February 2023 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs and the war: one year on The war in Ukraine, which marks its one year anniversary on Friday, has had a profound impact on the emerging world. Ukraine’s economy has collapsed, while Russia’s has contracted too even though the... 22nd February 2023 · 8 mins read
India Chart Pack Adani spill-over risks: not out of the woods yet In a crowded field given the FY23/24 Union Budget and the RBI’s more-hawkish-than-expected policy announcement, the Adani short-selling crisis has been the main story over the past month. So far at... 21st February 2023 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Petro spooks investors (once again), Brazil’s fiscal rule In Colombia, President Petro’s healthcare reform unveiled this week reinforces our concerns about a worsening public debt trajectory and more interventionist policymaking, and caused the peso to fall... 17th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Recessions arrive in CEE, external deficits narrowing The big picture from the Q4 GDP data this week was that, despite some divergence within the region, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as a whole had a relatively poor end to 2022. We expect CEE... 17th February 2023 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Consensus is too optimistic about GDP growth The economy expanded at a slower pace in Q4 than most anticipated, and while the second consecutive fall in export volumes in January largely reflects distortions from the Lunar New Year, it’s... 17th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Jan. 2023) & Machinery Orders (Dec. 2022) The trade deficit was virtually unchanged in January, as volumes and prices of exports and imports fell across the board. With the global downturn weighing on external demand, further export volume... 16th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (Jan. 2023) & Machinery Orders (Dec. 2022) 16th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Output & Trade Balance (Dec.) The fall in euro-zone industrial production and imports in December further highlights the weakening in the economy at the end of last year. We expect the economy to enter a recession this year as the... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Export downturn, outbound tourism, EV subsidies Early signs are the China’s goods exports will fall further in the next few months. Outbound tourism though is surging with further major relaxations this week of COVID-linked limits on overseas... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi external position, PMIs, Egypt privatisation Recent data showed that Saudi Arabia recorded its largest current surplus since late 2014 in Q3 of last year as oil revenues boomed. The Public Investment Fund (PIF) is recycling these surpluses into... 9th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia: large fall in the dinar lies in store Tunisia’s fragile balance of payments of position has deteriorated further over the past year and the dinar appears increasingly overvalued. We think that the currency needs to fall by at least 30%... 8th February 2023 · 4 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The December trade data show a rebound in both real exports and imports but, with those gains following steep declines in previous months and the surveys pointing to renewed weakness to come, the data... 7th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Dec.) A surge in motor vehicle exports drove export volumes higher at the end of 2022, even as lower commodity prices weighed on export values. While there is scope for motor vehicle exports to recover... 7th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Dec. 2022) Export volumes probably edged up last quarter while import volumes plunged so net trade should provide a boost to Q4 GDP growth. 7th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Dec. 22) 7th February 2023 · 1 min read
