China Chart Pack Energy shortages starting to ease Despite a flurry of media reports in September hinting at widespread disruption, the data suggest that China’s recent power shortages have not been too severe. Electricity output actually rose 0.6% in... 29th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds set the stage for slower growth The EM recovery is now entering a more difficult phase as the boost from economic re-opening fades, supply shortages bite, growth in China weakens and the terms of trade worsen for major commodity... 28th October 2021 · 26 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Hope on vaccines, but still a long way to go COVID-19 vaccine coverage remains pitifully low across much of Sub-Saharan Africa, with less than 10% of populations having received at least a first dose in most countries. But there are signs that... 28th October 2021 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack What do higher oil prices mean outside of the Gulf? The Gulf countries will be among the biggest winners globally from the recent rally in energy prices but most other parts of the Middle East and North Africa are net oil importers and are likely to be... 27th October 2021 · 10 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Headwinds beyond vaccine woes intensifying Extremely low vaccine coverage continues to cast a dark cloud over recovery prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa and this will be compounded by deteriorations in the terms of trade and tighter fiscal... 27th October 2021 · 22 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Fiscal risks in the spotlight The growing likelihood that Brazil’s government will circumvent its spending cap adds to broader signs that austerity is becoming politically difficult to implement across the region. For instance... 26th October 2021 · 10 mins read
China Economic Outlook Downturn setting in The economy slowed sharply in Q3. Weakness in services is already reversing as virus controls have been relaxed again. But industry and construction are on the cusp of a deeper downturn that could... 26th October 2021 · 23 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Oct.) Korean export values continue to climb in October driven by both rising prices and growth in underlying volumes. The strength of the external sector adds weight to our view that the economy will... 21st October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Near-term recovery to face stronger headwinds The region has experienced a rapid recovery, but the re-opening boost has now faded and the region is likely to face stronger headwinds in the near term due to surging COVID-19 cases, rising inflation... 20th October 2021 · 28 mins read
India Chart Pack RBI in no hurry to withdraw policy support The latest activity data suggest that India's recovery has entered a slower phase, with global supply shortages starting to weigh on the economy too. In addition, India’s vaccination coverage remains... 20th October 2021 · 9 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Sep. 2021) The sharp fall in exports in September suggests that supply shortages are severely hampering manufacturing activity in some sectors. However, we think exports will soon bounce back as supply shortages... 20th October 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Burgeoning trade deficit is not a major concern The sharp widening in India’s goods trade deficit in September was driven in part by an unusually large jump in oil imports that we think will prove a one-off. And with the economic recovery entering... 15th October 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Sep.) September exports beat even our above-consensus expectations. Coupled with separate data showing that electricity consumption held up well last month, this suggests that the hit from power rationing... 13th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Structural slowdown in China a key threat to Australia Australia’s exports to China are even more vulnerable to a slowdown in the property sector than they were before the trade spat as iron ore has gained in importance. We think that China’s steel demand... 13th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Conditions for strong recovery finally in place With the Delta wave having ebbed and the majority of the population now fully vaccinated, we expect a strong rebound in domestic demand over the coming months. But the inflation concerns that hang... 7th October 2021 · 21 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Aug. 2021) The record trade surplus in August came despite the plunge in iron ore prices in August. The upshot is that net trade should provide a boost to GDP growth in Q3 as domestic demand weakens. 5th October 2021 · 2 mins read
