Japan Economic Outlook Economy on brink of mild recession The economy is on the brink of a mild recession but with underlying inflation still accelerating, we expect new Bank of Japan Governor Ueda to end Yield Curve Control at the upcoming meeting in April. 13th March 2023 · 23 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Yield Curve Control set to end in April The Bank of Japan didn’t alter policy settings at today’s meeting. With economic activity set to disappoint the Bank’s overly optimistic forecasts and wage growth slowing again, the case for... 10th March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The widening in the international trade deficit to $68.3bn in January, from $67.2bn, included big rebounds in both imports and exports which, at face value, add to the signs that demand is... 8th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The strong gains in exports and imports in January suggest that easing supply shortages are offsetting the negative impact of higher interest rates on both external and domestic demand. That presents... 8th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM financial risks have eased but not evaporated Financial risks across the emerging world have eased since the start of the year but, with the Fed’s Jerome Powell all but confirming a higher peak for US rates, there is still scope for EMs with weak... 8th March 2023 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Jan. & Feb.) China’s import volumes were little changed at the beginning of the year, disappointing hopes for a rebound. But we still think that reopening will eventually drive a pick-up in imports. And while... 7th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Jan. 2023) Although the rise in export earnings lagged growth in the import bill in January, we still think net trade will provide a decent boost to GDP growth this quarter. 7th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Jan.) 7th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big are risks from Germany’s trade links to China Germany is more vulnerable than most advanced economies to a reduction in trade with China both because of the scale of trade and the use of Chinese-made inputs to its large manufacturing sector. 6th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Q4 may mark the trough, only weak recovery ahead There are tentative signs in recent data that the slump in Asian goods exports may be nearing an end and that, after a dreadful performance at the end of 2022, GDP in much of the region may have... 3rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt: winners and losers of a weaker EGP emerging Recent falls in the pound and rising borrowing costs forced Egypt’s Ministry of Finance to revise up its targets for debt and the budget deficit earlier this week, but we remain of the view that the... 2nd March 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade in recessionary territory While a slew of recent data from advanced economies have surprised to the upside, world trade data are still very much consistent with economic weakness in the near term. Not only did Q4 see one of... 28th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update East Asian equities may hold up despite plunging exports Falls in exports from Korea and Taiwan have weighed on corporate earnings in these economies, but even if that continues for a while we think their equities will hold up fairly well. 23rd February 2023 · 4 mins read
