Global Trade Monitor World trade stagnates as demand wanes Trade is beginning to slow as the world heads into a recession. In real terms, world trade barely rose in September, and timelier data from Asian economies suggest outright falls are imminent. Falling... 28th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Plunging shipping costs to weigh on inflation Over a year ago, we warned that surging shipping costs posed an upside risk to inflation going into 2022, and it looks like these risks did indeed materialise. But now that global shipping costs have... 25th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Global recession adds to headwinds facing Lat Am With the global economy headed for recession and commodity prices likely to come off their recent highs, Latin American exports will struggle over the coming quarters. Weakening global growth is also... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack North Africa turns to IMF to ease external strains Economies across North Africa have endured severe balance of payments strains this year and governments in Egypt and Tunisia finally secured staff-level agreements with the IMF over the past month... 23rd November 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Black Sea grain deal extension reduces risks to EMs Russia’s agreement to extend the Black Sea grain deal with Ukraine should help to keep a lid on wheat and corn prices over the coming months, reducing upward pressure on inflation in the emerging... 21st November 2022 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Higher rates feeding through to real economy The RBI has hiked interest rates by 190bps since May and, while that is relatively benign compared to the moves seen in many other EMs, this tightening is now feeding through to the economy. Purchases... 21st November 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s election: a fork in the road for the economy Voters in Turkey head to the polls in 2023 and if the ruling People’s Alliance and President Erdogan cling on to power, the authorities are likely to double down on their “new economic model”, raising... 21st November 2022 · 40 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt privatisation, Saudi investment, Qatar World Cup Egypt’s state ownership policy document could come into effect in before the end of this year, but it remains to be seen how willing the authorities are to relinquish their control over the economy... 17th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Oct. 2022) The trade deficit widened but stayed below the record high in August, but with the yen strengthening significantly in recent weeks, the deficit should narrow later this quarter. 17th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco’s external position better than rest of N. Africa Morocco has been hit hard by the spillovers from the war in Ukraine and, while its external strains aren’t anywhere near as sever as those in Egypt and Tunisia, we think the authorities will need to... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Baby steps at G20 as fracturing theme dominates This week’s G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, has so far exceeded low expectations. There is broad condemnation of the war in Ukraine and bilateral talks between China and the US seem to have been... 15th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s current account risks continue to mount Romania’s current account deficit, which is among the largest in the EM world, has continued to widen this year and now exceeds 9% of GDP. It is reassuring that much of the deficit is currently being... 14th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Upside surprises to Q3 GDP not a sign of things to come Many of the Q3 GDP releases of early-reporting economies have beaten consensus expectations in the past few weeks, especially in Europe. Not only did energy-crisis-laden Germany grow in Q3, rather... 11th November 2022 · 13 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt and Tunisia heading down different paths The recent IMF deals reached by governments in Egypt and Tunisia are positive developments and will help ease balance of payments strains in both countries. Egypt has already made progress with... 9th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Decline in EM exports has further to run Our seasonally-adjusted measure of aggregate EM goods exports recorded a decline in dollar terms in September and leading indicators point to further falls over the rest of the year. And with... 8th November 2022 · 4 mins read
