Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th Aug.) The unexpected slump in Korean exports in the first 10 days of August could just be volatility in the data, but a reversal in the performance of exports to the US suggests the fall at least partially... 11th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s industrial commodity import volumes to fall China’s industrial import volumes rose in July, which is consistent with the recovery in economic activity and opportunistic stockpiling at low prices. While final commodity demand will remain strong... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly The Phase One trade deal is on borrowed time Next week’s semi-annual review of the Phase One trade deal will likely be a sobering affair given China’s limited progress toward meeting its purchase commitments. While both sides appear content to... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Jul.) Imports edged up in level terms, consistent with the ongoing recovery in domestic activity. Meanwhile, exports jumped thanks to stronger foreign demand and the ongoing boost from COVID-related... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the hit to Turkey’s current account position Turkey’s current account deficit has widened to levels not seen since 2018, which can partly be explained by a slump in tourism receipts. While this should start to reverse over the rest of this year... 6th August 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics International Trade (Jun.) The latest trade figures confirm that both exports and imports finally began to rebound in June, and we could see continued rapid gains over the coming months as trade catches up with the strong... 5th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Trade (Jun./Q2) Retail sales and external trade both rose in the month of June but may weaken again before long as imports begin to normalise and the renewed lockdown in Victoria weighs on retail sales. 4th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs and Korea Trade (Jul.) PMIs for Emerging Asia and Korean trade data suggest that the recovery in economic activity across the region is picking up some momentum. That said, the data do not point to the kind of strong... 3rd August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Debt moratorium extension, shifting geopolitical sands The likely extension of the RBI’s debt moratorium will help smooth near-term cash flow issues for firms and households but, in the absence of additional financial support from the government, this won... 24th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Will Asia benefit from China’s strong rebound? China’s rapid economic recovery from the Global Financial Crisis did not play as big a role as is commonly assumed in supporting growth in the rest of Asia. We doubt a strong rebound in China from the... 24th July 2020 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Rupee could weaken even if risk appetite holds up After hitting an all-time low in April, the rupee has strengthened by 3% against the US dollar as risk appetite has returned to global financial markets. But while we think risky assets generally –... 22nd July 2020 · 9 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th July) Korean trade data for the first 20 days of July suggest that the recovery in exports has continued this month. But the initial rebound has still been weak and the recovery in external demand in the... 21st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jun.) Export volumes were little changed in June but they should rebound soon as many of Japan’s trading partners are on the mend. By contrast, import volumes never fell much despite the slump in domestic... 20th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Nascent export rebound has further to run EM goods exports remained weak in May, but partial June data point to a fledgling recovery. This is likely to continue in the coming months, although a number of factors look set to constrain the... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Rare trade surplus gives little reason to cheer India’s monthly trade balance swung into its largest monthly surplus on record in June. But this is not something to celebrate since it is the result of continued weakness in domestic demand. 16th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s opportunistic buying has run its course China’s commodity import volumes surged in June, while exports remained in the doldrums. We expect this trend to partially reverse in the coming months as higher commodity prices will curb bargain... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
