China Data Response Trade (Apr.) China’s exports were much stronger than anticipated in April but are likely to drop back sharply this month. In contrast, the recent resilience of imports faltered in April as inbound shipments began... 7th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The massive rebound in exports in March is hardly surprising given the impact of a cyclone in February but we think weakness in global demand will weigh on export growth in the coming months. 7th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update US-China tensions unlikely to subside before election There is a good chance that the renewal of antagonism between the US and China, this time over the origin of the coronavirus rather than trade, will persist – and might even escalate – in the run up... 6th May 2020 · 4 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The widening in the trade deficit to $44.4bn in March, from $39.8bn, came as a further fall in imports was outpaced by a plunge in exports, with both driven by a collapse in international travel and... 5th May 2020 · 2 mins read
International Trade (Mar.) Business closures from the middle of the month contributed to the sharp falls in trade in March. As many manufacturers remained closed for the whole of April and oil prices fell even further, exports... 5th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Apr.) Korean export values fell sharply in April and with global demand collapsing, trade is likely to remain very weak. Indeed, we wouldn’t be surprised if the May data worsened further still. 1st May 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi balance sheet, curfews easing, Lebanon spat Figures published over the past week have provided the first signs of the hit to Saudi Arabia’s from lower oil prices; but we remain comfortable with our view that the dollar peg will remain intact... 30th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Easing lockdowns will boost growth The strict lockdowns have resulted in a massive drop in demand, but they have also been successful at ‘flattening the curve’ or reducing the number of new daily cases of Covid-19 in both countries... 30th April 2020 · 10 mins read
Global Trade Monitor A weak start to what will be a dreadful year for world trade Whilst the CPB world trade data showed another small drop in February, with lockdowns taking effect across much of the world in March, we expect much sharper falls in the coming months. In total, we... 24th April 2020 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Shadow banking woes deepen Measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus will increase strains among traditional banks, but the shadow banking sector – still reeling from a large-scale default 18 months ago – is likely to... 22nd April 2020 · 9 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Apr.) Korean trade data for the first 20 days of April suggest that slumping external demand is now weighing heavily on Korean exports. 21st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Output to fall the most since Great Depression The restrictions imposed to limit the spread of the coronavirus will result in GDP falling at a double-digit rate in Australia and New Zealand in Q2. While activity will bounce back over the coming... 20th April 2020 · 20 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Mar.) Exports fell sharply in March and are set to plummet this quarter as economic activity in most of Japan’s major trading partners has collapsed. 20th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack New cases not exploding but economic hit still huge A second wave of virus cases driven by rising infections in Tokyo and Osaka has triggered a major shift in economic behaviour. And while new cases in the two lynchpins of the Japanese economy have... 17th April 2020 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Update Will a drop in remittances cause further pain? The scale of job losses and falls in incomes caused by coronavirus containment measures across the world – but particularly in the US and the Gulf – is likely to weigh heavily on remittance inflows... 16th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Trade data highlight collapse in demand The collapse in both exports and imports in March highlights the extreme weakness of external and domestic demand. What’s more, the worst is yet to come as lockdowns to contain the spread of the... 16th April 2020 · 2 mins read
