Latin America Economics Update Chile: tightening cycle has ended but rates will stay high Chile’s central bank (BCCh) became the latest in the emerging world to end its tightening cycle yesterday. But with inflation only likely to fall back towards target in late-2023 and the external... 13th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: sharp slowdown, debt restructuring on the cards Ghana’s economy held up well in the first half of this year but high and rising inflation, combined with monetary and fiscal tightening, means that a sharp slowdown is on the cards. Talks with the IMF... 12th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The impacts of a strong dollar on the global economy The dollar’s appreciation is bad news for the global economy, as it will weigh further on demand for traded goods and add to global inflationary pressures. It is another reason why we expect the... 12th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response GDP & International Trade (Aug.) The contraction in real GDP in August won’t ease the jitters in the financial markets at a time when the recent behaviour of politicians and the words of the Governor of the Bank of England are making... 12th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update How will the world weather China’s troubles? China’s economy has essentially stalled. This does not mean that aggregate growth in the rest of the world will automatically slow, but there will be winners and losers at a country level. In view of... 11th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows from EMs have picked up over the past month against the backdrop of a strong US dollar. We think that emerging economies will continue to find it difficult to attract foreign capital... 11th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly The dust settles in Brazil, Petro hits at BanRep The stronger-than-expected performance of Jair Bolsonaro and his right-wing allies in Brazil’s election last Sunday has buoyed the country’s financial markets by reducing the risk of a dramatic shift... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Sep.) The decline in China’s foreign exchange reserves appears to be due to valuation effects rather than direct intervention in the FX market. But we still think the PBOC will try, and may well succeed, in... 7th October 2022 · 3 mins read
CE Spotlight Fracturing and financial flows The trend towards ever more “financial globalisation” has already decelerated and will probably slow further as the global economy fractures and policymakers favour resilience over efficiency. While a... 6th October 2022 · 25 mins read
CE Spotlight The impact of fracturing on trade and supply chains Fracturing will not be felt as globalisation in reverse – apart from a few categories of goods deemed politically sensitive or strategically important, most trade between the US and China-aligned... 6th October 2022 · 20 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How worrying is the fall in EMs’ FX reserves? While large-scale intervention to stem currency weakness has led to falls in central banks’ foreign exchange reserves, FX reserve coverage is only really low in a handful of EMs including Egypt... 6th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Aug. 2022) The further fall in the trade surplus in August largely reflects a plunge in export prices and net trade should still provide a small boost to Q3 GDP. But with commodity prices now clearly down from... 6th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The further sharp decline in the trade deficit to $67.4bn in August, from $70.5bn, means that net exports provided a big boost to third-quarter GDP growth. But the twin drags from the surging dollar... 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The drop in export volumes in August and the large downward revision to the trade surplus in July present downside risks to our already-weak estimate for third-quarter GDP growth of 0.8% annualised. 5th October 2022 · 3 mins read
