Global Trade Monitor Trade volumes down for third month and worse is to come Given that the lockdowns were implemented in most countries in March, the 1.4% m/m contraction in world trade volumes seems fairly muted. However, the global number was flattered by a sharp rebound in... 27th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strong imports, Kansai gets back up and running The resilience of imports in both March and April has prompted us to significantly revise up our forecast for Q2 goods and services imports. However, the nature of the current downturn means that... 22nd May 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China decoupling, property prices, trade outlook The main event this week is the opening of the National People’s Congress (NPC) later today. We’ll publish our analysis of the key NPC reports once they are released. The NPC aside, US-China tensions... 22nd May 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Apr.) Exports plunged in April and are set to continue falling sharply for a while yet with economic activity in Japan’s main trading partners remaining extremely depressed. 21st May 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th May) Korean trade data for the first 20 days of May show no signs of a turnaround in exports despite the easing of lockdowns in many trading partners. 21st May 2020 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Recovery in sterling could have further to run If we are right in thinking that some sort of compromise can still be reached on a UK-EU trade deal, the tentative recovery in the pound over the past few days could continue. 20th May 2020 · 6 mins read
India Chart Pack Lockdown hasn’t flattened the curve yet Despite a stringent lockdown that has lasted nearly two months, new recorded cases of COVID-19 in India remain on a sharp upward trajectory and hit a record high yesterday. The true number of cases is... 20th May 2020 · 10 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q1) While Chile’s economy grew strongly in Q1, this was largely due to favourable base effects resulting from strikes in Q4, and hides a sharp deterioration in activity in March. We expect a steep... 18th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Trade data indicate extreme weakness in demand The 60% y/y contraction in goods exports and imports in April highlights the extreme weakness of external and domestic demand. This will probably mark the bottom as restrictions on activity are... 18th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Goods Trade (Mar.) Euro-zone trade values fell sharply in March, and more open economies will suffer most from the drop in global demand. But the stringency and duration of virus containment measures will be a more... 15th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market damage & renewed trade tensions The unemployment rate is unlikely to remain as low as 6.2%, as it was in April. Many of those who left the labour force last month will probably start to look for a job as the economy reopens. Even so... 15th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s border closure will hit harder in Q2 The border closure will result in a collapse in revenue from foreign tourists and a marked fall in revenue from foreign students in Q2. And while the government will probably allow foreign students to... 12th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey and the rising risk of (another) currency crisis The huge hit to Turkey’s balance of payments position from the coronavirus crisis and the evaporation of investors’ confidence in policymakers makes the risk of a currency crisis like that seen in... 11th May 2020 · 18 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th May.) Korean trade data for the first ten days of May show that exporters have taken a massive hit from lockdowns across the world. This bodes poorly for exporters across the rest of the region too. 11th May 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Holiday spending, trade talks, renminbi In a sign that consumption is still being held back by concerns over the virus and households’ finances, domestic tourism spending during the Labour Day holiday was down 60% y/y despite the fact that... 8th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Easing of restrictions lays ground for rebound in H2 Australia’s government unveiled its roadmap for the reopening of the economy on Friday, which lays the ground for a strong recovery in consumption and output in the third quarter. However, we are less... 8th May 2020 · 7 mins read
