India Economics Update Trade data point to sluggish demand recovery The widening in India’s goods trade deficit in August won’t put the external position at risk, but the underlying data suggest that the recovery in external and domestic demand is stuttering. 16th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Aug.) Exports continued to recover in August while import volumes fell. Indeed, we expect net trade to provide a sizeable boost to growth this quarter following a huge drag in Q2. 16th September 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Jul.) The strong 6.6% m/m rise in GDP in July suggests that the record-breaking negative growth rate of GDP in Q2 will be followed by a record-breaking positive growth rate in Q3. However, July was probably... 11th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th Sep.) Korean exports rose in levels terms in the first 10 days of September and, with trading-partner economies still getting back on their feet, we expect further gradual improvements in external demand. 11th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will EMs gain from China’s strong recovery? China’s strong economic recovery is likely to provide more of a support to the recovery in (non-oil) commodity producers in Latin America and Africa than it will in the rest of Asia. But we don’t... 10th September 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Focus Introducing our new China Activity Proxy (CAP) For over a decade, we have tracked the performance of China’s economy independently from the official GDP figures using our China Activity Proxy (CAP). We are now introducing a revamped version of... 10th September 2020 · 30 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What to make of Mexico’s 2021 budget The frugal 2021 budget proposed by Mexico’s government underlines policymakers’ fixation about public debt risks and concerns about their credit rating. Meeting policymakers’ new and ambitious targets... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Aug.) The pick-up in headline export growth last month reflects base effects and masks a slowdown in levels terms. Meanwhile, imports are doing just as well as exports once price effects are adjusted for. 7th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly A PMI puzzle, Brazil’s GDP oddities & budget A string of eye-catching economic data releases this week has fuelled yet more optimism about the strength of Brazil’s recovery. But digging into the details suggests that there may be less to some of... 4th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Spate of financial crises avoided, but hangovers loom Most major EMs have managed to avoid acute balance of payments, banking sector and sovereign debt problems so far this year. But pockets of vulnerability remain. In particular, the risk of another... 4th September 2020 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Slow recovery in the Philippines, Taiwan-US FTA A long and strict lockdown meant the Philippines suffered one of the biggest falls in GDP in the region in the second quarter. The most recent data suggest that it is also experiencing one of the... 4th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Jul.) The fall in export values in July is consistent with our view that exports won’t rebound much in Q3, but the jump in import values suggests that domestic demand is now on the mend. 3rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs provide more evidence of uneven recovery The further rise in the EM manufacturing PMI to a nine-year high of 52.5 in August, from 51.4 in July, suggests that the EM recovery continued in the middle of Q3. But the rebound has been uneven... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs underpin the strength in metals prices China’s August PMI readings support our view that the economy will return to its pre-virus trend by the end of this year, which is positive for almost all commodities prices, but especially industrial... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Aug.) Korean export values rose again in August and we expect a continued recovery in external demand to drive further small improvements in the months ahead. 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Low oil prices are supporting the recovery China’s economy is benefiting from a favourable combination of strong demand at home but weak global demand for energy and low oil prices. As a result, the current account surplus has jumped to a five... 28th August 2020 · 5 mins read
