China Economics Weekly New growth forecasts, service sector divergence We’ve nudged down our China growth forecast for 2021 in response to incoming data suggesting that momentum slowed more than we’d expected in the early part of this year. Our expectations for the rest... 23rd April 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly How damaging will be the new restrictions be? With the economic damage from last year’s lockdown still fresh in the memory, there appears to be little appetite for a return to extreme measures to curb the ongoing outbreak. But given the very... 23rd April 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy to stagnate in first half of the year The states of emergency set to begin in four major prefectures on Sunday will knock back Japan’s economic recovery and should mean that output stagnates across the first half of 2021. While the... 23rd April 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Domestic travel fuelling recovery The available data suggest that the recovery in consumption stalled at the start of the year and the slow rollout of vaccines could be an additional headwind. However, with the virus all but... 23rd April 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Mar. 2021) Inflation continued to rebound in March mainly due to a further pickup in energy inflation. We think headline inflation will rise further and break past the lofty heights of +1% y/y later in the year. 23rd April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus restrictions start to bite Our in-house mobility tracker suggests that the surge in virus infections in India is now weighing on activity. This is likely to become more pronounced as the outbreak has become more widespread... 21st April 2021 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q1) We think underlying inflation will remain close to the RBNZ’s target for the foreseeable future which supports our view that the RBNZ will hike rates next year. 21st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Government sets out stimulus worth 4.4% of GDP The additional stimulus outlined in today’s Budget was in line with our expectations and, while a few of the proposals will raise eyebrows, the total package should help to support a strong economic... 19th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Fourth virus wave to slow recovery The fourth virus wave has so far been largely concentrated in Osaka and a state of emergency declaration in that prefecture alone would not prevent national output from rebounding in Q2. However, as... 19th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Mar. 2021) While export values rose in March, the rebound in exports slowed significantly across Q1 and external demand is unlikely to provide much of a tailwind to growth this year. 19th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Focus Accelerated technology use will improve productivity There is evidence that the pandemic has accelerated technology use, partly through increased equipment investment but mainly through a change in the way that people work. The effects on productivity... 16th April 2021 · 14 mins read
China Data Response China GDP (Q1), Activity & Spending (Mar.) China’s GDP growth jumped to a record high in y/y terms last quarter. But this was entirely due to a weaker base for comparison from last year’s historic downturn. In q/q terms, growth dropped back... 16th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Kansai emergency looming, jabs to pick up soon The continued surge in daily infections makes it highly likely that states of emergency will be declared again for at least the hard hit prefectures of Osaka and Hyogo. If the spread intensifies... 16th April 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Investment recovery enters a slower phase Monthly data suggest that the recovery in investment has slowed, and headwinds are mounting too. The surge in virus cases means lots of firms will tread with caution in the near term, while problems... 16th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (April. 2021) With the notable exception of Turkey, the net capital outflows from emerging markets seen in February and March appear to have eased in recent weeks. Outflows may yet intensify over the coming... 15th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will hike rates in 2022 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) stuck to its dovish stance when it left policy settings unchanged today, but we still expect the Bank to raise rates towards the end of next year. 14th April 2021 · 3 mins read
