Asia Economics Update Singapore: monetary policy to remain on hold in 2021 The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) left policy on hold today as advanced Q1 GDP data showed the economy rebounded further. While GDP is set to continue recovering at a decent pace, a persistent... 14th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Feb. 2021) The sharp fall in machinery orders in February poses downside risks to our view that business investment continued to rise last quarter. However, the recovery in private investment should still gather... 14th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Feb.) Turkey’s activity figures for February suggest that the economy lost momentum in the first quarter of this year and the recent surge in COVID-19 cases, combined with the tightening of financial... 13th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Households still accumulating excess savings We estimate that households accumulated “excess” savings of around 4.4% of GDP last year. But they are unlikely to spend this cash any time soon, so it will probably not do much to boost the recovery. 9th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Feb.) The surprising 0.4% m/m rise in Mexico’s industrial production in February came despite the hit to manufacturing and utilities output from power outages. The industrial sector probably gained further... 9th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly UK variant taking hold in Osaka, July snap election? Signs the recent surge in infections in the Osaka area is being driven by more infectious strains raises the risk of more draconian restrictions being needed to break the fourth wave of coronavirus... 9th April 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly QE or not QE isn’t really the question The RBI's new bond purchase programme announced this week has led to comparisons with quantitative easing (QE), but there appears to be some subtle differences. In truth however, it matters little... 9th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Travel bubble & vaccine rollout The Australia-New Zealand travel bubble is set to launch in mid-April which should support employment in the tourism and transport sectors. But employment won’t fully rebound until the tourism returns... 9th April 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will keep policy loose for a long while yet The MPC voted to keep the repo and reverse repo rates on hold today amid the surge in COVID-19 cases, and committed to keeping policy “accommodative to support and nurture the recovery”. Given this... 7th April 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Mar.) India’s PMI readings for March indicate that the economic recovery continued to progress well at the end of Q1. But with virus cases surging and new restrictions quickly coming onto the agenda, the... 7th April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) India’s manufacturing PMI for March indicates a continued rebound in the sector last month, but that has already been overtaken by more recent events. In particular, the renewed surge in new COVID-19... 5th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q4 2020) The improvement in Russian GDP growth to -1.8% y/y in Q4 was driven by a rebound in household consumption and investment and confirms that the economy held up well during the second virus wave. This... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Feb. 2021) The 0.7% m/m drop in Brazilian industrial production was led by the auto sector, which may reflect supply shortages but also weakening demand following the end of emergency income support. With the... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs point to lower industrial metals prices Despite some conflicting messages from the official and unofficial PMI data out of China, both surveys continue to point to lower industrial metals prices. A pick-up in manufacturing activity and... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Surge in virus cases a growing threat to recovery The rise in new COVID-19 infections to a six-month high yesterday has predominantly been limited to one state. But there are signs that the virus is spreading rapidly to other parts of the country and... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Fourth wave fears, pace of inoculations slow until May The jump in retail sales in February and the strong rise in the Q1 Tankan released today confirm that the economy weathered the second state of emergency far better than the first. And there is... 1st April 2021 · 4 mins read
