Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ may hike rates by 50 basis points in two weeks The tightening in the labour market back to pre-virus levels in Q2 is further evidence that the New Zealand economy is now overheating. As such, the financial markets are right in anticipating a rate... 6th August 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Relapse risks rising Economic activity has been recovering quickly since the second virus wave abated. But we've argued for some time that the rapid reopening increases the risk of new outbreaks. That threat is building... 6th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Calls for more draconian restrictions growing The number of new virus cases hit record highs this week as the Delta variant is now spreading widely. While the vast majority of the elderly are now fully vaccinated and deaths have remained low, the... 6th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (Jun. 2021) The weakness in wage growth in June reflected both a slowdown in regular pay and a drop in summer bonuses. But with the labour market set to tighten and corporate profits on the mend, we think that... 6th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus The economic fallout from political risks in Lat Am The pandemic appears to be accelerating a political trend towards populism in Latin America. While there is a lot of uncertainty about how this might play out, it generally points towards loose fiscal... 5th August 2021 · 15 mins read
Capital Daily Post-MPC rise in Gilt yields may be a sign of things to come The 10-year Gilt yield rose slightly after the Bank of England left its policy settings unchanged today and we expect it to continue to push higher over the coming years. 5th August 2021 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Although the headline data show bank loans stagnant, that is mostly due to the forgiveness of Paycheck Protection Program loans and mortgage securitisations, with the broader evidence pointing to an... 5th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Lagging behind Vaccination campaigns across Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to struggle, leaving the region vulnerable to renewed virus outbreaks. This, combined with tight fiscal policy, a slow return of tourists... 5th August 2021 · 22 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Jun.) The widening in the trade deficit to $75.7bn in June, from $71.0bn in May, is unlikely to be sustained now that consumer goods demand appears to have peaked and surveys show demand for US exports... 5th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (June) The merchandise trade position returned to surplus in June thanks to a massive 8.7% m/m surge in exports, which suggests that second-quarter GDP growth was even stronger than the 2.5% annualised we... 5th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE vaccine rollout, Egypt and Oman subsidy reversals The announcement that the price of state-subsidised bread in Egypt will be raised adds to our view that inflation will drift higher and that the central bank will hold off from cutting rates for now... 5th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q2) Indonesia’s economy is struggling badly, with Q2 GDP data showing that the recovery lost some momentum even before the latest surge in virus cases, which will have thrown the economy back into... 5th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Are investors concerned about peak big-tech earnings? The share prices of most of the US big-tech firms have faltered – and underperformed the broader market – since they reported another quarter of consensus-beating earnings results last week. This has... 4th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update How best to gauge underlying pay pressure If labour earnings growth took a decisive leg up, this would force central banks to rethink how long this year’s bout of higher inflation in advanced economies will last. The challenge is that the... 4th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Strong recovery to continue in Q3 The surge in spending as coronavirus restrictions have been lifted will bring the euro-zone economy close to its pre-pandemic level in the coming months. After expanding by 2% q/q in Q2, we expect a... 4th August 2021 · 12 mins read
Canada Economics Update How do our key calls compare with the consensus? Our expectations for GDP growth and inflation this year are close to the consensus but, beyond then, we think both will be weaker than most expect. This is likely to feed through to a fall in the... 4th August 2021 · 4 mins read
