Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Nordics top the class with their virus responses While Sweden’s economy got off relatively lightly in H1 thanks to the light-touch lockdown, Norway and Finland saw even smaller falls in activity at a lower human cost. Nonetheless, the success of the... 26th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Low interest rates will be the new normal in Russia The neutral interest rate has become one of the hot topics in Russian monetary policy over the past year and the downward revision to the central bank’s estimate of the neutral rate in July marks the... 26th August 2020 · 24 mins read
UK Economics Update How reliable are the high frequency indicators? With the so-called “easy” part of the economic recovery probably coming to an end, the next leg is likely to be slower, particularly if like overseas, the UK suffers a renewed surge in virus cases and... 26th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Second wave unlikely to completely derail recoveries Having been among the fastest in the world at controlling the initial outbreak, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Korea are all at different stages of a second wave of infections. With new infections in Hong... 26th August 2020 · 14 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP Q2 2020 (2nd Est.) & Ifo Survey (Aug.) The second estimate of Q2 German GDP confirms that all elements of domestic demand except government spending fell sharply. A big rebound in Q3 is already baked in the cake, but survey evidence... 25th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Q2) While Sweden’s light-touch response to Covid has hogged the headlines, data released this morning show that the Norwegian economy outperformed its Nordic cousin in the first half of the year, and is... 25th August 2020 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch Bank to resume bond purchases in earnest The Reserve Bank of Australia isn’t keen on providing more monetary stimulus and instead wants the government to do the heavy lifting. As such, the Bank will certainly keep policy settings unchanged... 25th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q2 2020) Nigeria’s GDP nose-dived in Q2 and we think the recovery will be held back by continuing oil production cuts, losses in employment and income and limited fiscal stimulus. 24th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) July’s batch of Polish activity data provides further evidence that industrial production and retail sales have rebounded quickly towards pre-virus levels. The rise in localised virus cases does not... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI dividend, agriculture outlook The RBI’s annual dividend transfer to the Finance Ministry will do little to ease the strains on the public finances, and the central budget deficit still looks set to widen sharply this year. On a... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update New MPC will have more work to do The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s August policy meeting show that the MPC – of which three members are now due to step down – has turned notably more hawkish on the inflation outlook. But there are... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Second wave unlikely to derail the recovery Following a huge drop in Q2, GDP is set to rebound sharply this quarter. The second virus wave already shows signs of slowing again and we think it merely brought the recovery in domestic demand to a... 21st August 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea second wave will weigh on the recovery A growing second wave of infections in Korea is set to weigh on the recovery there. While new restrictions to contain the virus have been light, there is evidence that businesses and individuals have... 21st August 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Aug.) The stagnation in Japan’s composite PMI in August is consistent with our view that the second virus wave has brought the recovery to a standstill but won’t cause a renewed downturn. 21st August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Taking stock of Q2 GDP and the recovery so far The latest Q2 GDP figures show diverging depths of downturns between EMs (outside China), which can largely be explained by differences in the severity of virus outbreaks and the stringency of... 20th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s recovery set to weaken The latest data suggest that Brazil’s recovery so far has been quicker than we expected, which has prompted us to revise up our 2020 GDP growth forecast to -5.0% (previously -7.0%). However, tighter... 19th August 2020 · 4 mins read
