OPEC+ fallout, Oman’s upgrade, TUI cancellations

The OPEC+ meeting this week triggered a rise in oil prices and, while we expect prices to fall by next year, rising production means that overall oil export revenues for the Gulf economies should increase in 2022. In turn, that will open the window for some governments to loosen fiscal policy. The exceptions to this are Oman and Bahrain. Although Oman had its outlook upgraded by S&P this week, both governments will still need to tighten fiscal policy further. Finally, the decision by travel company TUI to cancelled flights to Tunisia and Egypt until later this month highlights that recoveries in the tourism-dependent economies will be bumpy.