Japan Economics Weekly Hospitals under pressure, PM Suga looking vulnerable While daily cases have shown tentative signs of levelling off in recent days, severe cases will continue to rise sharply for a while yet so the threat of tighter restrictions on economic activity... 13th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (Q2 2021) The 1.9% q/q expansion in Poland’s GDP in Q2 left the economy 0.5% above its pre-pandemic size and we expect another strong reading for Q3 as activity in consumer-facing sectors continues to recover... 13th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Vaccine roll-out accelerating as activity stalls The outbreak of the Delta variant in Australia has continued to worsen. More states are now in lockdown and sentiment is deteriorating. That poses a downside risk to our Q3 GDP forecast. However the... 13th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q2) Malaysia’s economy shrank by less than most had expected last quarter and while a further worsening in the virus situation means the immediate outlook is poor, rapid progress on vaccination has set... 13th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Slow vaccine progress will delay return to normality Slow vaccine rollouts mean the economic disruption from COVID-19 is likely to last well into next year in many countries. There are a few exceptions though. In particular, Singapore has already... 13th August 2021 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vaccine rollout struggling for momentum Concerns continue to build over a new virus wave in India and adding to the worry is the sluggish pace of the vaccine rollout. The government has this week taken steps to boost supply, but they are... 13th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Peak global growth narrative lacks nuance Slowdowns in China and the US should not be taken as evidence that the global recovery is stalling. Admittedly, it is not just some high-profile data from the US and China that have weakened recently... 12th August 2021 · 12 mins read
Africa Economics Update A closer look at South Africa’s public finances The improvement in South Africa’s budget position at the start of this fiscal year has probably now been partially reversed and we think that policymakers will find it increasingly difficult to remain... 12th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think Treasury yields and oil prices will continue to diverge Although the two markets have often moved in tandem, we expect Treasury yields to continue to rise over the next few years even as oil prices resume their decline. 12th August 2021 · 6 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Industrial Production (Jun.) India’s consumer price inflation dropped below the 6% upper limit of the RBI’s target range in July, and we think further falls are likely. With the economy also still weak, there should be little... 12th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Russians return to Egypt, Saudi budget deficit narrows Egypt welcomed back Russian tourists for the first time in six years this week, but any boost to the ailing tourism sector is likely to be limited as other countries maintain travel restrictions to... 12th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Industrial Production (June) The second successive monthly fall in euro-zone industrial production in June was largely due to ongoing supply-chain difficulties in Germany. As these will ease only slowly, we don’t expect industry... 12th August 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Jun. & Q2) The media headlines have focused on the big 4.8% q/q gain in GDP in Q2, following Q1’s 1.6% q/q fall. But the real news was the unexpectedly strong growth in June which suggested that the recovery... 12th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for June confirm that the economy bounced back quickly from May’s three-week lockdown. This, coming alongside the further jump in inflation in... 12th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update What’s going on with wages? Distortions to the data mean it is hard to gauge the current pace of wage growth, but the business surveys suggest it will soon head back to pre-pandemic levels. Given the Bank’s upbeat view on the... 11th August 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Recovery becoming more tepid With a whopping 1.0 million people on average having been asked by the NHS App or Test & Trace system to self-isolate in July, the “pingdemic” is likely to have stifled the economic recovery in recent... 11th August 2021 · 9 mins read
