Asia Economics Weekly Two non-consensus calls on monetary policy There are four major monetary policy meetings scheduled in the region next week. While we expect the central banks of Indonesia and Taiwan to leave rates unchanged, we are pencilling in a hike by the... 17th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Post-election negotiations could lead to looser policy Whether the Liberals or Conservatives triumph on Monday, it seems likely that they will hold fewer seats than the current minority Liberal government. With the balance of power shifting toward the... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property sector leverage, China’s CPTPP bid Evergrande is the poster child for the excesses of China’s property sector, and its short-term liabilities are particularly high. But the sector is full of similarly-leveraged peers. Indeed, nearly... 17th September 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Aug.) The fourth consecutive fall in retail sales in August isn’t as bad as it looks as some of it reflects households spending more on non-retail items as life returns closer to normal. But as non-retail... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ set to tighten in October, RBA in early-2023 The strong rise in New Zealand’s GDP in Q2 nearly returned output to its pre-virus path despite the headwinds from low net migration and the slump in foreign tourism. So while GDP plunged in Q3, we... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Telecoms lifeline, autos constraints, bank liquidity India's struggling telecoms firms were thrown a lifeline this week after parliament approved a four-year moratorium on dues owed to the government. One potential consequence is that telecoms firms are... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily China’s financial markets, Evergrande, and global spill-overs Although we doubt the current slowdown in China’s economy will reignite 2015-style “hard-landing” fears that weigh heavily on risky assets generally, we are anticipating some negative spill-overs... 16th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What an Evergrande collapse would mean for the world We think that the ‘China’s Lehman moment’ narrative is wide of the mark. On its own, a managed default or even messy collapse of Evergrande would have little global impact beyond some market... 16th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon finally gets a government, Saudi education plans The news that Lebanon finally formed a new government this week came as welcome relief amid the country’s economic, political and humanitarian crises. But there are still plenty of big hurdles to... 16th September 2021 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Even though the 0.7% rise in headline retail sales in August was much better than expected, the details were far less positive, with big downward revisions to previous months, while the rise in online... 16th September 2021 · 2 mins read
CE Spotlight Will a post-pandemic surge in demand fuel inflation? Demand was always likely to rebound strongly as economies re-opened and confidence returned. Beyond this, though, there are reasons to think that we could now be in for a period of sustained strong... 16th September 2021 · 25 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q2 2021) The strength in activity in Q2 was partly driven by the travel bubble which burst in Q3 as New Zealand went into lockdown. While we expect domestic demand to recover toward the end of the year... 16th September 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Property crunch will be followed by lasting decline The root of Evergrande’s troubles – and those of other highly-leveraged developers – is that residential property demand in China is entering an era of sustained decline. Relaxation of regulatory... 15th September 2021 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) The 0.4% m/m rise in industrial production in August lifted it back above its pre-pandemic peak, but was nevertheless weaker than we had expected and suggests that the industrial recovery is losing... 15th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA to struggle to get back on economic feet after July hit South Africa’s hard activity data for July underscored the severe blow to the retail and manufacturing sectors from violent unrest and tighter virus restrictions. While much of the hit has probably... 15th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s election: social redistribution in focus A victory for United Russia in the Duma elections this week will strengthen the government’s recent focus on state intervention in the economy. Social redistribution has become a key priority for the... 15th September 2021 · 5 mins read
