Africa Economics Weekly Recoveries trembling under new virus variant threat A concerning new virus variant identified in Southern Africa has already prompted the re-imposition of restrictions on travellers from the region and triggered a flight to safety in global financial... 26th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update First thoughts on Omicron It goes without saying that it’s still too early to say exactly how big a threat the new Omicron variant poses to the global economy. We’ll have more to say as the picture becomes clearer, but in the... 26th November 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Reforms on the back burner, mobile tariff hikes With key state elections coming onto the horizon, we doubt that any contentious economic reforms will be implemented during the winter session of parliament, which kicks off next week. Meanwhile, the... 26th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Oct. 2021) The 4.9% m/m jump in retail sales in October brought them very close to their May peak and supports our view that consumption will reverse nearly all of the plunge during the lockdown this quarter. 26th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Unpacking the oddities in Mexican GDP The final estimate of Mexican Q3 GDP data was revised down to a 0.4% q/q fall (original -0.2% q/q), but the breakdown showed the contraction was almost entirely due to an outsourcing law that hit... 25th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly SPR release, Turkey exposure, Egypt price adjustments The US-led release of oil reserves earlier this week did little to bring down the price of oil as President Biden would have hoped and, if anything, could provoke OPEC+ to raise oil production more... 25th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: how strong is the fiscal picture? Turkey’s public finances have become more vulnerable to falls in the currency in recent years, although we think the likelihood of sovereign default is very low. Perhaps the bigger risk for the public... 25th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM recoveries enter a more difficult phase Persistent supply shortages, fading reopening boosts and tighter financial conditions all pose headwinds to recoveries in Emerging Europe and Latin America over the coming quarters, while cooling... 25th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia’s fragile external position poses risk to dinar Tunisia’s external position is in a dire state and policymakers have little ammunition available to defend the dinar. We think the currency will depreciate by more than 10% against the euro by the end... 25th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q3 21) Private capital expenditure dropped during the recent lockdowns but firms’ forecasts point to a strong rebound over the coming quarters. 25th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Political storm clouds lifting for investors…for now Political developments in Latin America have generally turned in investors’ favour this month. Right-wing José Antonio Kast beat his left-wing rival, Gabriel Boric, in the first round of Chile’s... 24th November 2021 · 14 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell gets the nod; GDP growth rebounding The announcement on Monday morning that President Biden would nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed Chair was largely as expected, although the unexplained delays in making it official may... 24th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey & policy responses during past “sudden stops” The Turkish lira’s sharp fall yesterday looks similar to the experience of sudden stops elsewhere. In those instances, central banks usually responded with interest rate hikes of around 600bp as well... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods, Adv. Trade (Oct.), GDP (Q3 2nd Est.) The 0.5% fall in durable goods orders was not as bad as it looked, given that it was entirely due to a fall in volatile aircraft orders. But the bigger news this morning was the huge 10.7% m/m surge... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Export woes not just a Brexit story Brexit is undoubtedly a factor behind the slower post-pandemic recovery in UK exports relative to elsewhere. But doesn’t appear to be the sole reason. Instead, pandemic effects may explain at least... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Headwinds build as financial conditions tighten The sharp tightening of financial conditions in Latin America and Emerging Europe will add to headwinds facing both regions and feeds into our view that recoveries there are entering a slower phase... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
