Long Run Update Implications of living with COVID Many countries are increasingly well-placed to ‘live with COVID’ and will be able to avoid the need for occasional lockdowns. However, this requires reaching and maintaining a high level of immunity... 11th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.) The surprise 0.5% m/m fall in Mexico’s industrial production in June was driven by broad-based declines across sectors, including further disruption to auto production. Industry probably continued to... 11th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think the divergence in “rotation sectors” will continue We think that the sectoral outperformance so far this month of financials relative to energy and materials has further to run. 10th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Outlook darkens The disbursement of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) from the IMF later this month is a boon for some Frontier Markets that face very high borrowing costs. But beyond this, it is hard to find many... 10th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q2) The Philippines’ chances of a strong economic rebound from the contraction recorded in Q2 are looking slim given the new surge in virus cases and the reimposition of containment measures. The... 10th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What our commodity forecasts mean for Latin America We expect that most commodity prices will come off the boil, which will weigh on recoveries across Latin America, particularly in Peru and Chile. While the brightening domestic picture will boost... 9th August 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Inflation / Trade (Jul.) Rising factory gate prices for electronics products signal that supply chains are still tight but, with both semiconductor imports to China and China’s exports of electronics rising over the past... 9th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q2, Flash Estimate) The 1.1% q/q expansion in Saudi Arabia’s GDP in Q2 was driven by the unwinding of the voluntary oil output cuts and the easing of virus-related restrictions supported domestic activity. With the OPEC+... 9th August 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Dollar resumes its rally on the back of strong US data The US dollar is ending the week higher against most currencies, extending its gains alongside rising US Treasury yields following the stronger-than-expected July payrolls data. With Fed officials... 6th August 2021 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Chile GDP, central bank hawks, Brazil’s meteor This week’s strong activity data from Chile reaffirms our long-held optimism over its economic recovery, and will probably cause the central bank to adopt a more hawkish stance. Other central banks in... 6th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Exports heating up as housing cools There was more evidence that the housing market is cooling this week, with home sales slipping to 12-month lows in seasonally adjusted terms in both Toronto and Vancouver. The good news, however, is... 6th August 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Infrastructure deal heads to crucial vote While many Republicans will balk at the cost of the bipartisan infrastructure package, which the CBO said would add $256bn (1.1% of GDP) to the deficit over the next decade, that is unlikely to derail... 6th August 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Delta disruption spreads as vaccine exports soar Escalating efforts to contain China’s first Delta variant outbreak will hurt some sectors of the economy. But if they are as successful as they have been in the past, the overall damage will be... 6th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Industry holds back otherwise strong recovery This week provided yet more good news on the euro-zone, with case numbers falling consistently in some countries, vaccine rollouts on track, and both the survey and official data suggesting that the... 6th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Olympic productivity gains; fading boosts to Swiss CPI Norway’s Karsten Warholm had the race of his life this week, but if only it were as easy for economic policymakers to achieve the 1-2% productivity gains that the super-springy running track in Tokyo... 6th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA: new cabinet, old problems; SDRs no bonanza This week’s cabinet re-shuffle in South Africa has hit the rand and, while the new finance minister appears to be an investor-friendly choice, it will be a tall order to stabilise the public debt... 6th August 2021 · 5 mins read
