Nordic & Swiss Economics Norway going its own way The SNB and the Riksbank will leave interest rates on hold throughout 2022 and 2023 and probably beyond, but the start of rate hikes by the Norges Bank is edging ever closer. (See here.) Once the... 16th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jun.) Manufacturing sales started to rebound in June but, with the global semiconductor shortage set to ease only gradually, it is likely to be a slow recovery for manufacturing sales volumes. 16th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q2 2021) The larger-than-expected 15.4% annualised expansion in Israeli GDP in Q2 took the economy to more than 3% above its pre-pandemic level. While we expect growth to slow markedly in Q3 as the re-opening... 16th August 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) The drop in India’s headline wholesale price inflation in July came on the back of an easing in fuel and food inflation, both of which have further to run. And with headline CPI inflation having... 16th August 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Jul.) There was a broad-based slowdown in all the key indicators last month. This partly reflects disruptions to consumer activity due to the recent virus flare-up and flooding in central China. But... 16th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q2) The surprise rise in Thai Q2 GDP is unlikely to be repeated this quarter as cases surge and the vaccine rollout makes only slow progress. The tourism sector is still on its knees, meaning any recovery... 16th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan GDP (Q2 2021 Preliminary) Output only edged higher in the second quarter and won’t do much better this quarter as the Delta-driven fifth wave holds back consumer spending. But with the vaccine rollout still moving fast, a... 16th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2021) The larger-than-expected 10.3% y/y expansion in Russian GDP in Q2 suggests that the economy returned to its pre-pandemic level as growth was driven by broad-based strength across sectors. Growth is... 13th August 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Dollar rally takes a breather as US Treasury yields stall The US dollar looks set to end the week little changed against most currencies, as US inflation data – this week’s main data release – failed to push up the currency further. Next week, the minutes of... 13th August 2021 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru & Mexico hikes, Chile’s public spending spree Peru’s central bank, under the renewed stewardship of Governor Julio Velarde, started its tightening cycle yesterday with a 25bp rate hike, to 0.50%, and we think that rates will rise to 2.75% by the... 13th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s political noise, strong inflation numbers again Political upheaval in Poland this week after a coalition partner pulled out of the government has increased the possibility of elections before 2023 and raises concerns that the Polish Deal may... 13th August 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Economics June’s resilience won’t last as virus disruptions hit The 1.0% m/m rise in GDP in June was an impressive result. But we suspect that GDP growth in Q3 will be closer to 2.0% q/q than the 2.9% q/q forecast by the Bank of England. And we still think that... 13th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Bank hints at benefits of new policy framework A new paper from the Bank of Canada outlines some additional economic benefits of a new monetary policy framework, which could be a sign that there is a greater chance of the Bank adopting average... 13th August 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Delta wave may have peaked but it won’t be the last Aggressive containment measures, mass testing and quarantine appear already to be bringing China’s Delta outbreak under control. The economic cost should be fleeting – but it will be felt beyond China... 13th August 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Inflation peaking; growing chance of earlier taper While the July inflation data this week added to signs that we’re past the peak of “transitory” gains in prices for used autos and reopening services, the pick-up in some of the more cyclically driven... 13th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly German election getting complicated The latest opinion polls suggest that Germany’s election, on 26 th September, will be a close-run affair, with many coalition governments still potentially feasible. Whether or not the Greens are part... 13th August 2021 · 5 mins read
