Latin America Economics Update Brazil: could a savings drawdown lift the recovery? We estimate that Brazilian households have ‘excess’ savings worth around 6% of GDP resulting from the pandemic. These should help to cushion consumer spending in the face of headwinds caused by rising... 26th August 2021 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Continued strong payroll gains in August We expect a 750,000 gain in payrolls in August which, although slightly weaker than the gains seen in June and July, would be enough to push the unemployment rate down to 5.1% and would probably count... 26th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s COVID outbreak, Tunisia’s president tightens grip Fears are growing that Egypt is on the cusp of a fresh wave of COVID-19 driven by the Delta variant, but past experience suggests that restrictions will remain light touch and there is growing hope... 26th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Delta not clipping the wings of RBNZ hawks yet New Zealand has entered a draconian lockdown and new infections continue to rise. The lockdown prompted the RBNZ to refrain from hiking interest rates at its August meeting and financial markets were... 26th August 2021 · 11 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q2) The pick-up in Nigeria’s headline GDP growth to 5.0% y/y in Q2 was largely reflective of favourable base effects created by the sharp downturn a year ago. It appears that the underlying pace of growth... 26th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q2) We estimate that private investment rose by 1.5% q/q in Q2 and firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure suggest firms are still keen to invest when lockdowns ease. 26th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Consumer spending to fall across Q3 The latest high-frequency data point to the relentless surge in new coronavirus cases starting to weigh heavily on consumer activity this month. And with full-blown emergency declarations to be... 26th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Investment to make sizeable contribution to growth Business surveys suggest that global supply problems are becoming a drag on euro-zone investment, but these problems should fade going into 2022. As long as the Delta variant doesn’t halt the economic... 25th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Plateau in world trade and supply bottlenecks to persist The latest data show that world trade has flattened off at a high level. While timely indicators suggest that trade is unlikely to reaccelerate, it doesn’t look set to weaken much either. Consequently... 25th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: bigger GDP doesn’t ease economic woes Revisions to South Africa’s historic GDP data show that the economy is more than 10% larger than previously estimated. But this doesn’t alter the headwinds facing the economic recovery and, while the... 25th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Em. Europe & Lat Am leading the recovery in Q3 Most economies in Emerging Europe and Latin America look set for a strong third quarter and, while the near-term outlook for Southeast Asian economies remains challenging, high-frequency mobility... 25th August 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) The 0.1% m/m fall in durable goods orders in July was entirely due to a plunge in the volatile commercial aircraft component. The underlying details suggest that growth in business equipment... 25th August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update New fiscal stimulus likely to be underwhelming The bipartisan infrastructure deal, which could be passed by end-September, would provide no meaningful boost to the economy over the next couple of years. The $3.5trn spending package that Democrats... 25th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will supply constraints hold back the recovery in CEE? Intermediate goods shortages and pandemic-related supply constraints across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are not going to disappear overnight and may hold back the pace of recovery in certain... 25th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (August) The second successive decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index in August provides further evidence that Germany’s recovery is losing some momentum, partly due to supply chain difficulties in the... 25th August 2021 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Capital outflows would be no major macro concern Foreign portfolio outflows from Indian financial markets have been easing this month, bucking the broader EM trend. This may have been driven in part by the improvement in the virus situation. Looking... 25th August 2021 · 9 mins read
