Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland Consumer Prices (Aug.) & GDP (Q2) Data released this morning show that Swiss GDP is on track to re-gain its pre-pandemic level in Q3 and that inflation is creeping higher. Nonetheless, the near-term outlook is not as rosy as it was... 2nd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) Russia’s activity data for July show that industrial production has come off the boil, but retail sales continued to expand strongly, and the strength of consumer demand will probably keep the central... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery comes off the boil The EM manufacturing PMIs for August suggest that virus disruptions and supply chain constraints held back output in much of Emerging Asia. Manufacturing slowed in most other EMs too, although there... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s drought adds to inflation and fiscal risks Brazil’s drought is getting worse and the impact on hydropower production and electricity tariffs will result in higher inflation than we’d previously thought. Fiscal risks could also intensify if the... 1st September 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show supply shortages still limiting growth August’s global manufacturing PMIs brought more evidence of a slowdown in the sector. Growth was always going to fall back as activity approached more normal levels, but supply shortages are also... 1st September 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Pandemic not in the rear-view mirror for some time The economic damage from the latest COVID-19 waves across Sub-Saharan Africa appears to be smaller compared to previous waves, but low vaccination rates mean that officials will have to keep... 1st September 2021 · 5 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The details of the small rise in the headline ISM manufacturing index in August to 59.9, from 59.5, suggest demand remains strong and that, while some of the recent price pressures have faded, supply... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to keep policy unchanged as recovery stalls The unexpected contraction in second-quarter GDP means the Bank of Canada is likely to wait until October before reducing the pace of its asset purchases again, rather than pushing ahead with tapering... 1st September 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q2 2021) Brazil’s GDP contracted by 0.1% q/q in Q2 but, with virus cases falling sharply, it looks like Q3 will be a lot stronger. We doubt that the fall in output last quarter will have much bearing on the... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Jul.) & Final Mfg PMIs (Aug.) The fall in euro-zone unemployment in July appears to be down to a decline in the overall labour force rather than an increase in employment, highlighting that the labour market recovery still has a... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI bounced back last month following a sharp drop in activity in July on the back of violent unrest and tighter virus containment measures. But persistent headwinds will... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Riksbank to take a chance on “QT” next year Housing market valuations in Sweden are even more stretched than on past occasions when the Riksbank has “leant against the wind” – that is, set policy tighter than needed to contain consumer price... 1st September 2021 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (August) The PMIs for August suggest that manufacturing conditions have softened in Q3 as output and new orders fell further from their recent highs. More than anything, it looks like conditions are... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q2 2021) A strong rebound from May’s three-week lockdown meant that Turkey’s economy managed to expand by 0.9% q/q over Q2 as a whole and the early signs are that it carried this momentum into Q3. Robust... 1st September 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The drop in India’s manufacturing PMI in August is probably just a sign of activity normalising following the strong pace of recovery in recent months. But the threat of further virus waves remains a... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to stay the course The health situation in Australia continues to deteriorate, but the acceleration in the vaccine rollout means that lockdowns probably won’t last much longer. The Bank doesn’t believe that stepping up... 1st September 2021 · 8 mins read
