Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Early signs of second-round effects from soaring prices The RBA expects headline inflation to drop back from 3.8% in Q2 to 1.5% by mid-2022. By contrast, we now only expect it to fall to 2.5% over this period, reflecting the pass-through from soaring coal... 30th September 2021 · 11 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Sep.) The manufacturing PMIs diverged this month. But the big picture is that industry was coming off the boil even prior to the latest power shortages. On a more upbeat note, the official surveys point to... 30th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug. 2021) The sharp falls in both retail sales and industrial production in August indicate that activity weakened significantly at the height of the Delta-driven fifth wave. But while that suggests that the... 30th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Supply shortages, monetary policy and stock/bond correlations Although we expect bond yields to rise further, we don’t think that would necessarily coincide with the sort of sharp falls in equity prices we saw earlier this week. 29th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Asian central banks in little rush to raise rates Over the past month or so, the central banks of Korea, Pakistan and Sri Lanka have all raised interest rates, but we don’t think other countries will be in any rush to follow suit. There is certainly... 29th September 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Re-opening boost fades as supply disruptions mount Economies across Emerging Europe enjoyed a rapid rebound in Q2, but all the signs suggest that the recovery has come off the boil in Q3. Surveys of sentiment in services sectors have started to... 29th September 2021 · 15 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (September) The small improvement in economic sentiment in the euro-zone in September provides reassurance that supply shortages and the Delta variant will not cause a sharp slowdown in economic growth... 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The continued fall in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for September provides further evidence that the regional recovery in Central and Eastern Europe has slowed in Q3 as supply disruptions... 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Power rationing adds to mounting headwinds China’s power shortages are a reflection of the global strain in energy markets and won’t be resolved overnight. Power rationing will constrain industrial activity until demand weakens enough to bring... 29th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q3) GDP data reveal that Vietnam paid a heavy economic price in efforts to control the virus this quarter, but monthly activity data at least suggest that the worst is over and that a recovery is now... 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Rise in inflation to prove short-lived Inflation in many economies in the region has risen to multi-year highs in recent months. In general, this has been driven higher by a combination of unfavourable base effects from the pandemic, as... 28th September 2021 · 14 mins read
UK Economics High utility prices and tax rises a heavy hit to households The double whammy of higher utility prices and the government’s new “health and social care levy” will reduce real household disposable incomes over the next year or so by £16.5bn, or 0.6% of GDP... 28th September 2021 · 4 mins read
CE Spotlight Will US-China decoupling be inflationary? China’s integration into the global economy contributed to the low inflation environment of recent decades. But it was not the major driver and, in any case, China’s integration peaked several years... 28th September 2021 · 24 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack External headwinds growing Falling new virus cases and the lifting of restrictions have boosted economies across the region in Q3, but the deteriorating external backdrop will put a lid on growth from here. Even with an orderly... 28th September 2021 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor A strong Q3 for LatAm, weakness in much of Asia The latest data suggest that GDP growth in much of Emerging Asia slowed markedly in Q3, and that the recovery in Emerging Europe lost a bit of steam. Latin American economies generally strengthened... 27th September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) The 1.8% m/m rise in durable goods orders in August was due to the ongoing rebound in commercial aircraft orders together with solid growth in underlying capital goods orders, with the latter... 27th September 2021 · 2 mins read
