Japan Economics Weekly Light at the end of the tunnel High frequency data suggest that the Delta wave resulted in a renewed weakening in consumer spending in recent weeks. And given that the government this week extended the state of emergency in the... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vaccine rollout accelerates, MSP hikes muted India’s vaccine rollout has shifted into a higher gear over the past couple of weeks, but the slow start means that it would still take several months before a large majority of the population is... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Shortages stifling activity and boosting inflation The broadening of the recent product and labour shortages appears to be holding back activity and adding to the upward pressure on inflation. The risk is twofold. First, these shortages may prevent... 9th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily E-Z yields likely to rise only gradually despite PEPP recalibration The ECB announced a reduction in the pace of its asset purchases today, but both its forward guidance and its updated economic projections still suggest that the Bank will keep monetary policy very... 9th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The pandemic and EM scarring risks The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already... 9th September 2021 · 17 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Algosaibi deal, Egypt and COVID, UAE Projects of the 50 One of Saudi Arabia’s largest conglomerates, the Algosaibi group, is on the cusp of securing a debt restructuring agreement with its creditors, a sign that recent reforms are helping to speed up... 9th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update The effects of supply shortages Supply shortages may continue to limit growth and put upward pressure on prices for several months to come before a new wave of COVID infections is brought under control, economies reopen, and... 9th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Jul.) South Africa’s manufacturing sector suffered a larger-than-expected fall in output in July and, while more timely data point to a rebound in activity, the weakness in July has increased the chances... 9th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Evergrande & frontier sovereign debt risks build The combination of large foreign-currency debt burdens, low FX reserves and weakening currencies means that the risk of sovereign defaults in Sri Lanka and Tunisia is growing. Elsewhere, China’s... 9th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to press ahead with tightening Economic activity in New Zealand took a significant hit as the country was plunged into its strictest level of lockdown in August. But New Zealand’s success at taming the virus means output should... 9th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Shift in spending could hit demand for commodities Although world trade volumes are likely to hold up for a while yet, a reversal of some of the shift in spending patterns caused by the pandemic is likely to weigh on commodity demand. This is another... 8th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: income growth to drive the consumer recovery We estimate that households in Poland, Czechia and Hungary have accumulated “excess” savings worth 4% of GDP so far during the pandemic and this stockpile looks set to grow further in the coming... 8th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore struggling to live with COVID Singapore’s decision to reimpose some restrictions despite the country’s rapid vaccine rollout raises questions about its long-term strategy of living with COVID-19. The government’s caution will hold... 8th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone driver shortages less acute than in the UK The shortage of heavy goods vehicle (HGV) drivers in the euro-zone appears to be nowhere near as acute as in the UK. We therefore don’t expect to see a surge in drivers’ wages that would lead to... 7th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Despite RBA tapering, we expect a weaker Australian dollar Despite today’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to taper its asset purchases, we think the Australian dollar will weaken against the US dollar over the remainder of the year. 7th September 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Focus The economics of Scottish independence look more difficult The interactions between Brexit, the deterioration in Scotland’s fiscal situation and the continued lack of an easy option for the currency have made the economics of Scottish independence even more... 7th September 2021 · 28 mins read
