Emerging Markets Economics Update EM financial conditions still loose barring LatAm Our financial conditions indices show that conditions remain loose by historic standards in most EMs. The key exception is Latin America, where conditions have tightened sharply this year due to... 13th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for July suggest that, after putting in a better-than-expected performance in Q2, the economy made a soft start to Q3. 13th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the rally in the US dollar is over Although the US dollar, in aggregate, has fallen back sharply from its high of the year over recent weeks, we expect it will soon reverse course and strengthen against most currencies. CE Spotlight... 10th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s political crisis, Mexico’s austere budget It’s been a rollercoaster week in Brazilian politics and financial markets and, while investors have breathed a small sigh of relief in the past day or so, we think that they will be put under further... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Policymakers in focus The speech by Governor Tiff Macklem this week suggests that, when the Bank of Canada next tapers its asset purchases, it may do so by less than is commonly assumed. 10th September 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Economic recovery enters a more challenging phase The economy is entering a more challenging phase of its recovery from the pandemic as it is having to deal with another rise in COVID-19 cases and both product and labour shortages. We think the... 10th September 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Labour market shortages getting worse Tapering is off the table this month and whether the Fed will make an announcement before year-end depends on the strength of employment, which is being held back by increasingly acute labour... 10th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Good and bad news from SA, Tanzania gets IMF support Data this week showed that South Africa recorded robust GDP growth in Q2, but there was little time to celebrate as a slump in manufacturing output in July has raised the risk of a contraction over Q3... 10th September 2021 · 6 mins read
CE Spotlight How long will pandemic price pressures last? Global supply problems could put some further upward pressure on inflation in the near term, but the increase in inflation experienced in the immediate wake of the COVID crisis is close to peaking and... 10th September 2021 · 22 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway’s “climate election”; Riksbank’s QE dilemma The run-up to Norway’s parliamentary elections on Monday 13 th has been dominated by a debate over the speed at which the country should transition away from its reliance on energy. Labour’s Jonas... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly A look ahead to December’s ECB meeting Following yesterday’s comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde, the Bank looks set to make crucial decisions about the future of QE at its December meeting. We suspect that it will end its net... 10th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.) The stronger-than-expected 1.1% m/m rise in Mexico’s industrial production in July provides some encouragement that the economy fared well despite the onset of a third virus wave earlier this quarter... 10th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Encouraging signs in South East Asia Virus outbreaks across South East Asia are in retreat. Having taken a severe hit from the most recent Delta wave, economic recoveries in the region should now resume. Falling virus cases and reopening... 10th September 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Evergrande credit risks, border controls China’s banking system has large enough capital buffers to absorb an Evergrande collapse provided that the PBOC steps in to backstop the interbank market. Meanwhile, the one-sided reopening of the HK... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Jul.) The rise in COVID-19 cases and the product/labour shortages are probably behind the stalling in the UK’s economic recovery in July. With next week’s CPI release set to reveal a jump in inflation from... 10th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Reopening imminent but won’t start with a bang ‘Freedom day’ in New South Wales could be reached in little over a month. But the new freedoms will only be given to vaccinated residents. And the slower progress on vaccination in other states mean... 10th September 2021 · 6 mins read
