Canada Economics Update Loonie unlikely to have big bearing on policy outlook Governor Tiff Macklem has voiced concern about the inflationary impact of the loonie, but we doubt that a modest fall would prevent the Bank of Canada from pausing its tightening before the Federal... 28th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Your questions about the Global Economic Outlook We held an online Drop-In event yesterday to discuss our Q3 Global Economic Outlook and the forecasts within it (see an on-demand recording here). This Update addresses several of the client questions... 28th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (July) The increase in German inflation to 8.5% in July was higher than most anticipated and suggests that euro-zone inflation will also come in above expectations tomorrow. This will support what we assume... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q2) The 0.9% annualised fall in GDP in the second quarter is disappointing but doesn’t mean the economy is in recession. The decline was partly due to a huge drag from inventories, while most other... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth outlook darkens The economic outlook has deteriorated across the region. Inflation is soaring and monetary conditions are tightening, which is weighing on households’ real incomes and spending power. The latest... 28th July 2022 · 11 mins read
China Economics Update Policymakers give up on 5.5% growth The readout of the Politburo’s quarterly meeting on economic affairs has just been published by state media. It reiterates the need for more policy support but stops short of any major new... 28th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Weakness in Spanish household spending to persist Household consumption has been weaker in Spain than in other big euro-zone economies, reflecting the slow rebound in tourism, more limited fiscal support and higher inflation. The latter is set to... 28th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jul.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe showed declines across the region and across sectors in July, supporting our view that economies in the region are in the midst of... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Jul.) The bigger-than-expected decline in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator in July adds to a growing list of indicators pointing to activity slowing markedly in July. With the region’s gas supply now... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch Stepping up the fight We expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to step up its fight against high inflation at its meeting on Thursday 4 th August by raising interest rates by 50 basis points (bps), from 1.25% to 1.75%... 28th July 2022 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP Indicator (Jun. & Q2) The 1.4% q/q increase in Swedish GDP in Q2 poses upside risks to our below-consensus forecast for GDP growth in 2022. But with a recession on the cards in late 2022 and early 2023, activity is... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook Reopening rebound set to slow Activity has bounced back from lockdowns but China’s economic recovery will become more challenging from here on as exports turn from tailwind to headwind and the property downturn deepens. Policy... 28th July 2022 · 22 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Jun. 2022) The sixth consecutive rise in retail sales in June underlines that households are weathering the headwinds from falling house prices, soaring inflation and surging mortgage payments well and we... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Global trade boosted by post-lockdown rebound in China A sharp rebound in Chinese exports helped lift world trade higher in May, and could boost trade further in the coming months. But outside of China, forward-looking indicators still suggest that weaker... 27th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) The Russian industrial production figures for June were surprisingly strong, which likely reflects a pick-up in oil production. But retail sales remain depressed and show no sign of a turnaround. Our... 27th July 2022 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Housing crisis flares up again The mortgage boycotts are a double threat to developers and to the housing market. They have drawn attention to the problem of cash-strapped developers being unable to complete properties that they... 27th July 2022 · 11 mins read
