Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (November) The fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) for November was in line with expectations and suggests that the German economy was struggling even before the recent tightening of Covid restrictions... 24th November 2021 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor Service sector recovery remains lacklustre Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that growth ticked up last month as energy shortages eased and the service sector continued to recover from virus disruptions over the summer. But the rebound... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Backsliding on reforms? The repeal this month of controversial reforms aimed at liberalising the agriculture sector is arguably the biggest political setback that the Modi government has faced since coming to power in 2014... 24th November 2021 · 9 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Nov. 2021) November’s flash PMI points to a rebound in industrial output amidst early signs that supply shortages are diminishing. But while the services sector is now on the mend, the recovery there is lacking... 24th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q3, Revised) Revised Q3 GDP data show that Singapore’s economy grew more strongly than first thought last quarter, and while containment measures mean the recovery is unlikely to have gained much momentum so far... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Shortages exert further upward pressure on prices The Flash PMIs for November showed that although there are tentative signs that supply shortages are easing slightly, labour and product shortages are still weighing on recoveries in advanced... 23rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Rising US rates bigger worry for EMs than Turkey contagion Turkey’s currency crisis – the lira is down another ~11% against the US dollar today, and ~35% in two months – is now reaching a scale where it raises the question of how badly it will affect other... 23rd November 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Wage growth picking up The sharp slowdown in the pace of hiring in the October Labour Force Survey caught the headlines, but the more important development was the sharp rise in fixed-weight average hourly earnings. Based... 23rd November 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update Q4 outlook darkens as tighter restrictions loom Germany’s worsening Covid situation means much of the country could be subject to much tighter restrictions soon, potentially knocking around 0.25%-pts off euro-zone Q4 GDP. Even if other countries... 23rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Global exposure to Turkey’s currency crisis With the Turkish lira down by 9% so far today and 20% over the past week, the currency is now firmly in crisis territory. Higher inflation and tighter domestic financial conditions are likely to sap... 23rd November 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Nov.) The composite activity PMIs hardly changed in November as the economy held up fairly well despite continued supply disruptions and shortages. Meanwhile, signs that price pressures continued to grow... 23rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira in freefall as policymakers remain defiant The Turkish lira has plunged this morning after President Erdogan signalled yesterday that policymakers have no appetite to respond to the currency’s recent falls by hiking interest rates. Further... 23rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) The unexpected rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in November suggests that the region’s recovery has not lost further momentum. But with supply shortages still acute, Covid restrictions being... 23rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Oct.) The latest data suggest that Poland’s economy started Q4 with solid momentum as industry and retail sales expanded strongly in October. We think that industry will continue to hold up well in the... 23rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of renewed COVID concerns The news that lockdowns are once again being imposed in parts of Europe puts COVID-19 and its impact on economic activity and financial markets back into back into focus. While predicting the course... 22nd November 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Markets Markets mistaken on speed of rate hikes Although the economic backdrop has recently become less favourable for UK asset prices, we expect that the economic recovery will regain some vigour in the second half of next year, that CPI inflation... 22nd November 2021 · 12 mins read
