Japan Economics Weekly Stimulus package large but smaller than reported The stimulus unveiled today by PM Kishida’s new cabinet was broadly in line with expectations despite inflated headline figures quoted in media reports which we think are padded with loans and... 19th November 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Build Back Better to have limited near-term benefits The Build Back Better Act, which was passed by the House today, would provide only a small boost to economic growth next year. With the economy already running up against capacity constraints and any... 19th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly House prices surge, floods devastate BC The renewed surge in house prices could persuade the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates sooner than we forecast, although the hit to activity from the devasting floods in BC this week reduces the... 19th November 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Momentum could be sapped by winter wave While the recent performance of sales and production has been encouraging, the possibility of another winter wave of coronavirus infections represents a significant downside risk to activity over the... 19th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turmoil in Turkey, MNB delivers, COVID divergence It's been a turbulent week for Turkey, with the lira falling by around 11% against the dollar and we've looked extensively at the key implications for the economy and financial system. We'll be... 19th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The ongoing supply chain disruptions and unseasonably warm weather explain most of the weakness of retail sales in September, but it seems likely that the winding down of fiscal support to households... 19th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Auto sector past its worst, but slow recovery ahead The slump in auto production related to supply chain disruptions has dragged down the pace of the global recovery this year. And while there have been some indications that supply of auto parts is... 19th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly African central banks and the EM rate hike club This week, the South African Reserve Bank joined its EM counterparts in tightening monetary policy, but we don’t think that policymakers in South Africa will raise interest rates as aggressively as... 19th November 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics What if we’re wrong on inflation? This week’s data releases have made us more confident that the Bank of England will raise interest rates in December. But our forecast that inflation will fall back sharply in 2022 underpins our view... 19th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Austria lockdown casts shadow over rest of euro-zone The “full lockdown” in Austria announced earlier today is a response to the rapid deterioration in the Covid situation there and we estimate that it could knock around 1.5% off the country’s GDP in Q4... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB abandons its long-standing line of defence We argued only last week that the SNB would be comfortable with letting the Swiss franc rise against the euro. As it happens, after the franc pushed through the long-defended CHF 1.05 per euro mark in... 19th November 2021 · 4 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We think US inflation compensation will rise further US 10-year inflation compensation has risen by another 20bp or so over the past month and we think it will increase further as inflation in the US proves more persistent than most expect. This is one... 19th November 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Outbreak quashed, land auction rules eased Local authorities in China appear to be becoming more adept at bringing Covid outbreaks under control with relatively little disruption to economic activity. Meanwhile, this week’s easing of land... 19th November 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Sitharaman pleads, Das reassures Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman this week made an impassioned plea for the private sector to ramp up investment to support the economic recovery, but we don’t think that firms will heed her call... 19th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM tightening cycles have further to run Inflation in the emerging world has generally surprised to the upside in recent months. But while inflation in most parts of Asia remains at levels which central banks are comfortable with, it has... 19th November 2021 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Oct.) The rebound in retail sales in October adds to the evidence that activity held up well in October and will raise expectations that the Bank of England will hike interest rates from 0.10% to 0.25% in... 19th November 2021 · 2 mins read
