Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Sep.) The surprise 1.4% m/m drop in Mexican industrial production in September in large part reflects auto sector woes and suggests that the flash Q3 GDP estimate of -0.2% q/q may be revised down. This... 11th November 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Mobile payment takes off The pandemic has triggered a three-fold increase in the use of mobile payments in India. It is unclear whether there has been a corresponding broadening in the number of people using cashless payment... 11th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Where are frontier sovereign debt risks greatest? The precipitous decline in Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange reserves means the risk of a near-term sovereign debt default is increasing. Elsewhere, Tunisia also stands out on account of its public debt... 11th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics GDP (Sep. & Q3) The economy regained some momentum in September, but continued shortages and the drag on real incomes from higher utility prices probably mean it will soon fizzle out. That’s one reason why we doubt... 11th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Fossil-like Norway won’t go the way of the dinosaurs The UN’s annual climate change conference, COP26, will not have any discernible impact on Norway’s intention to keep pumping oil and gas over the coming decades. The irony is that Norway’s success in... 10th November 2021 · 13 mins read
UK Economics Inflation on the launchpad We’ve been warning for a while that CPI inflation would rise further than most people expect and have recently pushed our own forecast even higher. We now think CPI inflation will rise from 3.1% in... 10th November 2021 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand in no rush to tighten The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today at 0.5%, and the poor outlook for the economy means rates are likely to remain low for some considerable time. 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update External strains abate, but pockets of risk remain While external risks have subsided across much of Sub-Saharan Africa in recent quarters, pockets of vulnerability remain. External (and, as a result, debt) vulnerabilities look most acute in Ethiopia. 9th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Which measure of GDP should we believe? The divergence between the quarterly and the monthly measures of GDP have left it unclear whether the economy is still languishing at about 2.0% below its pre-pandemic level or if it is nearing that... 9th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rate hikes to take some heat out of growth and inflation The sharp tightening of monetary policy in the region will strengthen the preference for savings, dampen lending growth and raise debt servicing costs next year. It is plausible to think that higher... 9th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update “Excess” household savings could yet boost spending With household saving rates still elevated in most developed economies, “excess savings” have continued to rise. If people were to run down these savings, this would breathe new life into consumer... 9th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3, Flash Estimate) The Saudi economy expanded by 5.8% q/q in Q3, the fastest pace of growth in over a decade, as the ramping up of oil production drove the recovery. As OPEC+ continues to raise production quotas... 9th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Oct. 2021) The surge in October’s Economy Watchers Survey is the strongest sign yet that the economy is rebounding rapidly now that the bulk of the population is fully vaccinated and new virus cases have plunged... 9th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q3) Q3 GDP data were much stronger than expected and output is set to jump again in the fourth quarter following a sharp drop in virus cases and the further easing of restrictions. That said, even after... 9th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Recovery slowed by supply chain problems Economic growth has slowed sharply as output approaches its pre-pandemic level. We think that GDP will probably increase by only around 0.5% q/q in the final quarter, down from 2.2% in Q3... 8th November 2021 · 12 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA’s post-election policy direction, Ethiopia crisis spirals Next week’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement in South Africa is likely to provide an early signal that the government is scaling back its fiscal consolidation plans following the ruling ANC party’s... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
