US Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) The 0.3% m/m decline in manufacturing output is probably a sign that Omicron-related employee absenteeism was already weighing on output by the end of last year. We expect an even bigger hit in... 14th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Omicron sweeps across the emerging world The Omicron variant of COVID-19 is causing new virus cases to surge in the emerging world. Many EMs are reporting record daily cases or that new infections are rising sharply. South Africa’s... 14th January 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-NATO talks crumble, CBRT’s reserves plunge A tense week of negotiations between Russia, the US and NATO have ended with what now seems to be a more serious ratcheting up of tensions over Ukraine. It seems like that Russia’s recent belligerent... 14th January 2022 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The 1.9% plunge in retail sales in December in part reflects what appears to be a problem with seasonal adjustment process around the holidays. The initial Omicron wave appears to have had only a... 14th January 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Ramifications could be bigger if PM stays than if he goes The growing uncertainty over the Prime Minister Boris Johnson's position is unlikely to dent economic activity. Arguably, though, if a leadership challenge is avoided or Boris Johnson wins it, the... 14th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korean labour market not as healthy as it looks At face value, the Korean labour market figures for December paint an encouraging picture, with total employment rising to a new record high. However, a detailed examination of data reveals just how... 14th January 2022 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly “Rate hike” Olsen to bow out with a whimper Norges Bank Governor Olsen has presided over more rate hikes (seven) than any other G10 bank head since he took the role in January 2011. But with the Bank set to leave rates on hold at his last... 14th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone GDP barely grew in Q4, inflation risks rise Data released this week suggest that our assumption that euro-zone GDP rose by 0.2% in Q4 could be too optimistic, but we still think that the economy will grow in Q1. Meanwhile, rapid house price... 14th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Inflation fears to keep central banks in tightening mode There were signs that supply shortages were starting to ease in some places at the tail end of 2021. World trade was its strongest since shortages began to bite a year ago and industrial production... 14th January 2022 · 13 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strict isolation rules could cause severe shortages While we think Japan’s economy entered 2022 just above its pre-pandemic level, consumer spending will probably be knocked back this quarter by light-touch restrictions which are likely to be reimposed... 14th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (2021) Provisional data showing that Germany’s GDP increased by 2.7% last year and news that it shrank in Q4 underlines that its recovery has lagged many of its peers, including the US, France and the UK. We... 14th January 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Omicron surging, asset sales progressing COVID-19 cases in India are still surging. But the early indications are that healthcare systems are not under significant pressure, and we’re hopeful that India’s third wave will peak before long... 14th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Nov.) Although the effects of the Omicron COVID-19 wave will probably mean that the economy falls back below its pre-pandemic peak by January after having surpassed it for the first time in November, that... 14th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s consumer exuberance won’t last The strong rebound in consumer spending in November is consistent with our view that GDP surpassed its pre-lockdown peak in Q4 already. And while the Omicron tsunami seems to have resulted in a... 14th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update Our climate change assumptions Ahead of publishing our latest Long-Term Outlook next month, this Update sets out the assumptions we have made in our long term forecasts about both climate change and the efforts to prevent it. 13th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil and Gulf fiscal policy, Egypt joins GBI-EM, Tunisia We think that the recent rally in oil prices is likely to be short lived and, as prices fall back, the window for governments in the Gulf to loosen fiscal policy will shut. Elsewhere, Egypt’s... 13th January 2022 · 5 mins read
