Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Central banks in hawkish mood The ECB isn't the only European central bank in hawkish mood - we expect aggressive rate hikes from the SNB, Riksbank and Norges Bank later this month. Meanwhile, this weekend's general election in... 9th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession on the cards, but ECB goes big regardless The ECB delivered a chunky 75bp rate hike this week and signalled more large rate rises are to come even as it acknowledged that the euro-zone economy was likely to fall into recession. That’s... 9th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.) Mexico’s industrial sector posted disappointing growth of 0.4% m/m in July as stronger automobile output was partially offset by weakness elsewhere. More timely indicators suggest that, the auto... 9th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly New Indonesia forecasts, tourism to support Thai baht We are adjusting our inflation and policy rate forecasts for Indonesia in response to the recent fuel price hikes. Meanwhile, the recovery in Thailand’s tourism sector is gathering pace. This should... 9th September 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update A closer look at the diverging activity surveys We think the S&P Global composite PMI’s prediction of an imminent plunge in GDP will prove well wide of the mark, with the latest hard data pointing to growth of 3% annualised in the third quarter. At... 8th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Utility price cap cuts inflation, limits recession and lifts debt It seems that the size and structure of the Prime Minister’s policy to freeze utility prices is broadly as expected and will reduce inflation and limit the size of the recession. But it will come at... 8th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Aug. 2022) The muted uptick in current readings in August’s Economy Watchers Survey indicates that the economy was still weighed down by the record Covid-19 wave last month, while buoyant outlook readings point... 8th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jul. 2022) The record fall in Australia’s trade balance partly reflects bad weather that held back coal exports, but the recent fall in the iron ore price hasn’t fully fed through so export values will continue... 8th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Truss stamps down on inflation The possible policy of the new Prime Minister, Liz Truss, to freeze the utility price cap at £2,500 until sometime in 2024 will dramatically lower the near term path for CPI inflation. Rather than... 7th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Chart Pack ECB to press on with rate hikes as gas crisis intensifies European gas prices have been on a rollercoaster ride over the past month, rising to a peak of €340/MWh before falling back to around €240 to leave them about 50% higher than at the time of the ECB’s... 7th September 2022 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The 0.8% q/q increase in euro-zone GDP in Q2 will be as good as it gets for a long time. A recession looks inevitable in the coming quarters and the subsequent recovery is likely to be sluggish. 7th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (July) German industrial output fell a bit less than anticipated in July but that was mainly due to a rebound in construction activity, while there were signs that manufacturing production is starting to be... 7th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q2 22) The 0.9% q/q rise in Australia’s Q2 GDP was broadly in line with the RBA’s expectations and won’t move the needle in terms of the size of the next rate hike. 7th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update India leading EM rise up the world rankings Emerging markets will account for more than half of global GDP within the next decade. Headlining this, India is on course to become the world’s third largest economy by 2030. And EMs with rapid... 6th September 2022 · 5 mins read
