US Economics Update Shortages holding back investment and productivity While attention has been focused on how shortages and surging prices are holding back real consumption, those same factors are weighing even more heavily on business equipment investment. Faced with... 4th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Sep.) The 0.4% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in September suggests that the sector knocked 0.1-0.2%-pts off q/q GDP growth over Q3 as a whole. The latest surveys suggest that October’s figures... 4th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt inflation, Saudi budget, Bahrain’s fiscal plan Rising wheat and gas prices have added to concerns about inflation in Egypt, raising the risk that the central bank fails to deliver the interest rate cuts that we currently anticipate next year... 4th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s recovery held back by tourism and consumers Spain is a long way behind its euro-zone neighbours in recovering from the pandemic. That is partly because its important tourism sector has been hamstrung by travel restrictions but it also reflects... 4th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi recovery set up for strong end to the year Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery looks to have picked up speed in Q3 and should remain strong over the rest of this year and 2022, underpinned by rising oil output. 4th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) The PMIs suggest the euro-zone’s economic recovery will slow markedly in Q4 as supply shortages intensified throughout the region, especially for manufacturers. They also show that price pressures are... 4th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fiscal risks loom largest in Lat Am & S. Africa Among the major EMs, long-term fiscal problems look most challenging in South Africa and several large Latin American economies. And rising interest rates will make the fiscal squeeze needed to... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA local elections shrink political capital for austerity The ANC’s poor showing in South Africa’s local elections this week may strengthen the hand of factions within the party that want to push back against fiscal consolidation. This tilts the risks... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at the latest surveys The latest survey data suggest that GDP growth held up relatively well in Brazil and picked up slightly in Mexico in Q4. In the meantime, Chile’s red-hot recovery is continuing which will keep the... 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: comparisons with the 2018 currency crisis The economic and political backdrop in Turkey is eerily similar to that which preceded the currency crisis in 2018, although one key difference now is that the lira doesn’t appear to be fundamentally... 3rd November 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain & Oman: austerity and Gulf help needed The rally in oil prices has opened the door for some of the larger Gulf economies to loosen fiscal policy, but governments in Bahrain and Oman will need to continue tightening to repair their dire... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Best of the recovery now in the rear-view mirror The raft of Q3 data that have been released so far have been the proverbial mixed bag with some countries (g. France) reporting surprisingly strong growth and others (e.g. the US) surprising on the... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Oct.) October’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed that recoveries in non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf strengthened, particularly in the UAE as the Expo got underway this month. But price pressures are... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Virus caution by the elderly not a big downside risk Continued caution by the elderly is a downside risk to our upbeat forecasts for private consumption, but we’re already assuming that households won’t return to their old ways anytime soon. 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Oct.) The strength in India’s PMI surveys for October suggests that economic activity continued to hold up well last month. But we still think that the recovery is set to enter a slower phase, and India’s... 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Still no sign of supply problems letting up The October manufacturing PMIs gave us more of the same – evidence that supply disruptions are getting worse, industrial output growth is weakening, and price pressures are intensifying. This fits... 2nd November 2021 · 3 mins read
