Canada Data Response GDP (Q3) We wouldn’t put too much weight on the stronger-than-expected pace of third-quarter GDP growth because it mainly reflects a downward revision to GDP in the second quarter. Nevertheless, the latest GDP... 30th November 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) The 8.4% y/y rise in Indian GDP in Q3 (Q2 of FY21/22) is consistent with a rapid q/q rebound as virus restrictions were lifted and activity surged. But timelier data suggest that the recovery has... 30th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor The impact of Omicron on EM trade If the new Omicron variant leads to tighter containment measures across the world, that would probably prop up demand for pandemic-related goods to the benefit of Asian exporters. Meanwhile, oil... 30th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3 2021) Turkey’s economy put in another strong performance in Q3 but, as the effects of the recent currency crisis filter through, it is likely to suffer a contraction in Q4. The only crumb of comfort is that... 30th November 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Nov.) The official PMIs suggest that industrial activity rebounded this month thanks to easing disruptions from power shortages while a renewed virus flare-up held back the recovery in services. And while... 30th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Activity Data (Oct.) Korea’s economy is likely to have already rebounded from the downbeat October revealed in activity data today. But prospects for continued improvements have diminished, as a resurgence in virus cases... 30th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (Oct. 2021) Employment fell sharply again in October despite the lifting of states of emergency declarations at the start of the month. However, it should rebound sharply across November and December in line with... 30th November 2021 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Omicron tests China’s zero-COVID strategy The global spread of a more transmissible COVID variant is a particular challenge for a country trying to remain COVID-free. But after nearly two years of success suppressing infections domestically... 29th November 2021 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Update Omicron: implications for the euro-zone It is still very early days in assessing the effects of the latest Covid variant, but we suspect that Omicron has the capacity to cause a new decline in economic activity in the coming months but that... 29th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Omicron variant and the threat to EMs There’s a lot that we don’t know about the new Omicron variant. But if it proves more virulent, the economic fallout would probably be largest in EMs in parts of Africa and South and South East Asia... 29th November 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Omicron – The risks to GDP and for the BoE The restrictions announced by the government on Saturday in response to the new Omicron COVID-19 variant increase the downside risks to our GDP forecasts and the chances that the Bank of England... 29th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Omicron fears stall plans to reopen borders Amid all the uncertainty caused by the arrival of Omicron, one thing we can say with some conviction is that the new variant is further bad news for the region’s beleaguered tourism industry. Up until... 29th November 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for November showed a broad-based rise in industrial sentiment, but services sentiment softened further. With restrictions on activity being re-imposed amid... 29th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (November) Despite the slight deterioration on the month, November’s EC business and consumer survey showed that economic sentiment in the euro-zone was high before the recent news about the Omicron variant. It... 29th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Diverging outlook for monetary policy While the RBNZ has lifted interest rates by 50bp and signalled that as much as 200bp of tightening is still to come, the RBA’s central scenario remains that interest rates won’t be raised until 2024... 29th November 2021 · 11 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales (Oct. 2021) Retail sales kept rising in October despite another drop in motor vehicles sales. With supply disruptions now starting to ease and mobility picking up, they should continue to increase. 29th November 2021 · 2 mins read
