Asia Economics Weekly Mixed Korea activity data, climate change The latest batch of activity data from Korea indicate that the automotive sector was hit hard by shortages last month, but that the service sector is enjoying a recovery. The provisional Q3 GDP... 29th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Oct.) While many economies in Europe are facing the twin headwinds of supply constraints and high gas prices, the KOF Economic Barometer in October suggests that the Swiss economy continued to grow strongly... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Services recovering, industry still ailing This week’s activity data provided further evidence that supply shortages in the car sector are holding back the recovery. We expect car production to rebound this quarter as factories in Southeast... 29th October 2021 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack Energy shortages starting to ease Despite a flurry of media reports in September hinting at widespread disruption, the data suggest that China’s recent power shortages have not been too severe. Electricity output actually rose 0.6% in... 29th October 2021 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Oil price risks manageable for now High global oil prices have in the past contributed to worryingly-large current account deficits in India, but prices would have to rise much further than they have recently for that to return as a... 29th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Sep. 2021) The rise in retail sales in September means that the trough in consumption is now behind us. We expect retail sales to rebound in Q4 as restrictions relax and a growing number of Australians are able... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (Sep. 2021) While employment fell sharply again in September it should rise strongly across Q4 as economic activity gets back to near normal now that most restrictions have been lifted. Meanwhile, the sharp fall... 29th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Virus outbreaks shine spotlight on vaccine hesitancy The surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths in Eastern Europe has prompted the re-imposition of restrictions and it looks like measures will be stepped up, weighing on recoveries in Q4. Tight restrictions... 28th October 2021 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Delta drag easing, but shortages worsening We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by a slightly stronger 300,000 in October, with the easing Delta wave of infections triggering some rebound in hiring, but worsening labour shortages are a... 28th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Tighter financial conditions to hold back recoveries Financial conditions in Latin America have tightened sharply this year, most notably in Brazil and Chile, on the back of aggressive monetary tightening and growing political and/or fiscal risks. With... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds set the stage for slower growth The EM recovery is now entering a more difficult phase as the boost from economic re-opening fades, supply shortages bite, growth in China weakens and the terms of trade worsen for major commodity... 28th October 2021 · 26 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q3) GDP growth slowed to only 2.0% annualised in the third quarter, as the Delta wave of infections, the waning fiscal stimulus and shortages, particularly of motor vehicles, triggered a marked slowdown... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ to stay the course, Qatari banks, Saudi’s new NIF We think OPEC+ will stick to its guns next week and raise output quotas by 400,000bpd, but if it bows to pressure to move more quickly the Gulf economies would stand to benefit most. Elsewhere... 28th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (October) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator for October increased a touch, but the details show that expectations for production declined slightly, probably due to the worsening supply chain problems. So... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for October showed that sentiment in industry and services softened across most of Central and Eastern Europe at the start of Q4. With rising virus cases adding... 28th October 2021 · 3 mins read
